Chinese Invasion of North Korea

The following scenario involves a Chinese invasion of North Korea. It is important to look outside the box. The United States have no interest in attacking North Korea. North Korean missiles are not an existential threat to the United States. An offensive against North Korea could be very costly and provoke China and Russia. Thus, endangering world peace.

These past months, leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, has become increasingly provocative. One of his threats involved bombing Guam. But why? Does he have anything to gain from this? The reason is that he does not have the credibility or power of his predecessors. He is facing strong opposition within his own party. This makes him highly unpredictable as he is fighting to prove his legitimacy.

The Chinese cannot afford such a risk, as their ally could involve them in a war they don’t want. Worse, he could bite the hand that is feeding him. Additionally, a war will seriously damage trade for the entire region. China cannot afford a war that is not ready to wage.

A Chinese offensive into North Korea and the elimination of Kim Jung-un would ultimately strengthen China’s position:

1) It would trade Kim Jon-un’s unstable regime for a more controlled state. China does not want its ally to possibly become reckless and attack them.

2) China would be considered a hero internationally for getting rid of a terrorist state.

3) They would have primary access to North Korea’s untouched underground natural resources estimated between $6-$10 trillion.

4) Chinese companies could boost their yield by using cheap North Korean labor.

5) It would prevent US troops to be garrisoned near the Chinese border.

Communists already fought against each other in the past. In 1969, undeclared clashes occurred between China and the USSR at the height of the Sino-Soviet conflict. After the fall of South Vietnam, Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge regime seized power in Cambodia. He was backed by the Chinese. The North Vietnamese were backed by the USSR. Clashes happened between the two Communist countries, until Vietnam invaded Cambodia in the last days of 1978. Their goal was to destroy the hostile Khmer Rouge regime and eliminate Chinese influence in the region. In two weeks, the battle hardened North Vietnamese captured Phnom Penh. The invasion also stopped the Cambodian genocide. In 1979, after years of tension, China attacked Vietnam. The month-long conflict ended in a stalemate. Both sides claimed victory. However, the Chinese objective failed to drive the Vietnamese forces out of allied Cambodia.

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North Koreans have most of their troops at the South Korean border. China could potentially prepare a surprise attack from the North and a simultaneous amphibious assault on the North Korean rear. Their main objective would be to disable the missiles. Most launch sites are within 100 km of the Chinese border and could be reached in hours. The attack would resemble their 1950 offensive, when the Chinese army surprised the Americans approaching the Yalu River. Naturally, such a move could put Beijing in jeopardy, as it is within North Korean missile range. A preemptive cyber attack would create havoc against unprepared enemy nuclear reactors and launch sites. However, it is hard to estimate the exact strength of the North Korean regime. No action has yet been taken against it. This could mean two things: either the threat is negligible or cannot be secured.

A coup d’état from a pro-Chinese General against Kim Jong-un could happen simultaneously and freeze the NK army into inaction. The Chinese intervention force would then occupy the country and reinforce its position. South Koreans would be happy to have a stable and economically open neighbor. They would be the first to invest in NK. The Japanese would quickly follow as well.

The only unknowns are Russia and the United States. How could they react? And would a Chinese occupied North Korea be beneficial or detrimental for them?