非常抱歉标题党了，我向来不喜欢预测价格，因为总被打脸。本人投资属于风险厌恶型，喜欢在安全的标的重仓，而不喜欢小仓位去尝试各种高风险高回报的标的。所以这篇文章其实是提示风险的。
人们往往喜欢用某一个单一币种来判断牛市还是熊市，比如比特币，比如ETH，比如比特股BTS。其主要原因或许只是因为自己是某个币的忠诚粉丝。而忠诚的粉丝往往相信，自己手中的币比其他币更加优秀，相信自己手中币的上涨不是因为随波逐流资金驱动，而真的是因为价值被发现。
必须得承认，确实有些优秀的币种。比如个人持有时间比较长的主要有两个，一个是BTS,另一个是TMC（比特时代的股权币），其中前者在本轮牛市中涨幅最高达150倍，目前回落到100倍左右。后者涨幅最高达50倍，目前回落到40倍左右。平心而论，二者都是不错的品种，涨幅超越大部分其他币，价值发现当然是主要原因之一，比如BTS就不再多说，我在多篇帖子中已经提到。而TMC，即使已经涨了这么多，它的年化分红收益仍然高达40%。加上比特时代稳健而保守的风格，可以说是非常好的投资标的。
但是，目前的价格牛市的因素多大，自身的价值又有多大比重呢？我记得当年（14年）第一次比特币山寨币大牛市结束后，市场非常惨烈，比特时代上很多币跌到只有峰值的十分之一甚至更少的价位。当时BTS也是从3毛多跌到了1毛左右，这个跌幅算比较小了。于是BTS社区认为自己的币更优秀一些，喊出了“将其他币全部抛掉，将剩余的残值买入BTS是唯一正确的选择”这个口号。 诚然，BTS社区是最牛的社区，到现在我也这么觉得。但结果呢？ 在接下来的一年内，BTS从1毛左右阴跌到了2分，只有顶峰时的1/15，众多人在2分多割肉。只有等到本轮牛市，才扬眉吐气。涨幅比其他的币高，终于算是印证了价值发现从不缺席，只会迟到。但中间牺牲的那些大牛呢？ 累累白骨。 最近参加了几个线下的meetup，才知道圈内几个说出来无人不知无人不晓的大额，在刚解套时就出掉了，错过了这个大泡沫。而能坚持下来的又有几个呢？ 实际上，在BTS最困难的时候，铁粉们靠的是互相打趣的友谊或者情谊坚持下来的，而不是认为BTS真的会翻身。
这说明什么呢？ 再好的东西，也拗不过市场的大环境。而现在市场的大环境怎么样呢？
请看下图
The global blockchain Index
这个是过去一个月的区块链全球指数，不只是综合了多个币的价格，更关键的，是综合了网页浏览量，关键字搜索频率，开户数等等多个指标。中间那个大坑应该是5月底谣传6月份要出政策的那几天。可以看到什么趋势呢？ 缓慢下降，即将突破下轨。
这意味这什么呢？ 大妈们该进场的都进场了，增量很小了。再加上ICO的吸血，还想这些已经涨了上百倍的币再翻倍吗？ 难！
另外一件小事侧面反映这个市场情绪。 我一个刚退休的阿姨，前几天聚会时在饭桌上突然问我比特币是什么，说要买BTC， 吓得我一身冷汗，当晚立即抛了很多货。
如果说区块链是90年代的互联网，那么互联网也经历了2000年的寒冬，直到2008年以后移动互联网重新兴起，才拯救了整个行业。那么我会怎么做呢？
鱼头鱼身子已经吃了，鱼尾巴就不要再贪心了吧。拿好现金，等着泡沫破裂后抢好的标的！
注意，本文只作为自己心路历程的记录，不做投资建议。
time to wait I already bought at 1.30 :p
打脸并不是坏事，怕打脸才不成事 :)
打着打着就脸皮厚不怕打了，嘿嘿
I am short term bearish you can check out my charts here
应该还有很多人没进场吧，有多少人真的持有1个或以上的比特币呢？8月比特和莱特币有重大公告，还有得升吧。
在别人疯狂的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候疯狂。
上帝欲让其死亡，先让其疯狂。
。。。。。
买的是信仰，卖的是金钱！
买的是金钱，卖的是信仰
反过来才是真谛
大神理解透彻，说的清晰，有时候众人皆醉我独醒，众人继续炒泡沫。话说我一直以为去中心化是极其牛的想法，但是目前的加密货币确实是泡沫，没有威胁到大国政权还可以闹腾一下，但是一旦威胁到了核心利益层，那就是尸横遍野。技术vs政治，有胜算，难。不过从交易层来说，就是跟随趋势，涨的时候进，吃到了鱼身子出，不管是炒技术，炒泡沫，还是炒空气，只是可怜不知道谁在最后做了接盘侠。。。。
😄居然被阿姨吓到
话说我也有一个从未涉猎这个领域的朋友让我帮她买一些比特币，然后被我苦口婆心的劝住了，不是因为前景，而是因为她自己啥都不会弄
哦，忘记说了，当时价位6000
你这破嘴，挡人财路
她到不差这点钱，就是想学习和尝试一下，哈哈
6000时有人问我，我都是推荐买的。 阿姨跟阿姨不一样。哈哈
😄👏👏
啥也不说，但愿我这个朋友别看到这个帖😄
Upvote my friend! Cheking my post please! https://steemit.com/education/@mandolincarls/2-let-s-talk-about-mandolin-parts-of-the-mandolin
If you want to sell or buy, you need to know your cost and you need to take every single cost/fee into consideration before you proceed to the transaction. We tend to forget a lot of small details.
This is why my Excel sheet let's you keep track of every single transaction you make. It also calculates your ROI for you.
Get it now for free : HERE
lol nice hustlin excekl spreadsheet files, fuckin truly cyber baller
区块链全球指数 你是在哪个网站看到的？
your username looks like psychic pokemon Kadabra
It depends on your trading strategy
I'm a HODLer
I think you wait a day. See if price will go lower :)
hodler is pronounced like like Yodeler, right?
Yes, as long as you Hold On Dear Life when you invest in crytocurrencies :)
Came across an article about HODL.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@rjona1/origin-of-hodl
time to buy
做了新韭菜。
I apologize for my comment ahead of time...i know i was too intense abot chinese government...i respect the Leaders of China because they helped alot of people oout of poverty....but now is time for democracy because what good is money if you doont have freedom?
And i recognize my country USA is actually more evil than China
china does not invade other nations and occupy them anchina does not support terrorists like ISIS like USA does....but USA was taken over my Zionist bankers but it is our fault for letting it happen....we are doing better now.....give the new administration a chance to change the old satanic administration
Ying Yang BlockChang ..haha doesnt that sound like a good name for a Chinese Crypto Curreny Company?
I think you need to live in China to appreciate how the Chinese government makes thing work here. All i can say is it is not North Korea like I think Western media like to portray Chinese Communist party.
The Great Firewall of China really sucks but obviously there is way to get around it. I can STEEM daily :)
China is a Puzzle for Westerners, I agree. 1 reason I think is because Chinese have Confucian beliefs that value ORDER and Good Government while Westerners have Liberal democratic principles that emphasize the rights of the individual. Both ideas should not be incompatible but when situation arises, one has priority to another
ahhh so you admit steemit is or will be blocked om china?
u need to be like taiwan and hongkong! until then we will have dominance in the entertainment industry and all the dankest memes with the highest levels of creative freedom
i support all your endevors here, i will upvote your posts now on ur blog ans i folowed you
i hope to learn alot about the real china from you
you know Chinese companies are buying up Hollywood studioes , right ?
http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrTccoYHFFZ8yQA1QMPxQt.;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjR0MTVzBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwM3BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1498516633/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fmoney.cnn.com%2f2016%2f01%2f11%2fmedia%2fdalian-wanda-legendary-entertainment-deal%2findex.html/RK=1/RS=x.WuH5Fnzu8XHg_rI5Utlzjf7EM-
They partnered with Dreamworks to have KUNGFU PANDA 3 here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oriental_DreamWorks
Also chinese seem to love those flashy Hollywood movies. That is why Transformers is always a box office hit
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-box-office-transformers-5-20170625-story.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fsports%2Fhockey%2Fnhl+%28Los+Angeles+Times+-+Hockey%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results
My fear for taiwan and hongkong is that they are slowly getting gobbled up
SELL SELL SELL!
我相信比特币会在明年突破$5000 美元！
大神，求关注我的post
https://steemit.com/cn/@incrediblesnow/steem-now-upvote
Troll box back on Facebook!
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@typho0n/starting-a-trollbox-for-facebook-crypto
I actually just made a post answering this question here: https://steemit.com/steemit/@enazwahsdarb/why-the-world-s-richest-man-was-warren-buffett
Go check it out to see my perspective.
投机累人，还是要靠投资。