So this morning a discord pal shared this video:
https://www.tiktok.com/@thepsychopomp/video/7072358838883667206
She's (disclaimer: I am not a biologist) basically making the point that both Russia and Ukraine are huge food exporters to the Middle East and Africa. A lot of those places are very poor, so any increase in the cost of food could lead to riots, revolutions, and such.
And she's right. When people are literally starving they tend to get all stabby stabby.
So that's point #1.
Point #2 is the interview Zelensky did with CNN:
Archive link: https://archive.ph/T0uoP
Now for the theory...
So if Zelensky is telling the truth and NATO (read as: the US) said to keep up the claims for NATO membership in public but not in prviate, then the US was baiting Russia the whole time.
When Russia invaded, the US got several wins all at once:
- Hurts the Russian economy with sanctions and embargoes
- Makes Russia the bad guy on the world stage
- Gets to sell weapons systems (a major US export)
- Forces Russia to spend lives, equipment, and money on the invasion (although Russia seems to be using the cheap leftover equipment so far)
- Put pressure on non-dollar denominated oil trade between Russia and other partners (this is a biggie)
And I'm sure there's more.
This food angle adds another factor though.
Those countries that are big net importers are going to need food. The US produces a lot of food and positions itself as the humanitarian leader of the world. So it's natural to assume that the US will provide food aid programs to those countries.
You know what comes with food aid? Leverage.
The details can change with each particular deal, but bottom line is if Country A is helping Country B survive, Country B is going to owe something back to Country A.
I expect the US to use this opportunity to increase influence with those countries, many of which have not been the biggest friends of the US in the past. This will take several forms from strengthening the petro-dollar to interfering with China's expansion under Belt and Road to continuing to put pressure on Russian exports.
Never let a crisis go to waste, even if it was engineered.
I think it's about energy. Huge market and demand.
Yes, energy is a big part of it. I forgot to mention that.
Ukraine has 2 giant gas fields. around 2012 industry starts to make them accessible to earn.
Then Crimea, industry leaves.
Those fields could make Europe energy independent from Russia. I think that's the main reason for war because that's the strongest sword Russia has.
Boy, are people going to be surprised when the West turns out to be crippled by these sanctions. I dunno how people fail to grasp the lessons of history, but they do.
Welcome to Weimerica.
Thanks!
Follow the Money, everytime..