My model agrees :-)
What I've found is that it is often times too optimistic, for example, in the Brighton v Man Utd he calls the home win, but since I know its tendencies, I place Brighton +0.5.
I didn't do that a few weeks back in the St Ettienne v PSG game and regretted it. The result was a draw (1:1), although the home team scored all the goals in that game (OG in 90+2'). They even managed to miss a penalty.
The model kinda knows how to find these games, but I'm now scaling down its predictions.
Brighton v Man Utd - FT 1:0