Barry's analysis in that chain is poor probability work as a basis for investing.
"25% chance ETH -> ETC in next six months. 25% x $1b = $250m = 5x increase in ETC value today"
He assumes that Ethereum will be worth the same as a whole if ETHC passes ETH in value. That doesn't make much sense. If there is that much uncertainty, it's more like 25% * $500mm (half today's market cap) or lower. That's how I would break it down probalistically but with way more scenarios. Static system value conditional on chaos having occurred seems like bad analysis. There are cases where ETC wins and Ethereum is overall more valuable but you need to start with market information available.
Tbh I would have it like 5% chance (market baseline seems like the most appropriate starting point) that ETHC surpasses ETH in value, and conditional on that the ecosystem is probably worth much less likely $100mm or LTC town. There are slices where ETC wins and Ethereum but now you're 5% * some other small %.
Anyways that would be my approach. Says some guy on the internet.
Since his endorsement ETC recovered in price. Maybe he's just playing with the price. Coindesk, which he owns, may start pumping ETC now which could change the game somewhat.
All I can say is good luck. I understand the sentiment that they feel Ethereum is tarnished forever because of the hardfork. However, Ethereum classic is not where the devs are. Besides, they were able to hardfork because it's what the majority of miners wanted in the first place.
Barry's analysis in that chain is poor probability work as a basis for investing.
He assumes that Ethereum will be worth the same as a whole if ETHC passes ETH in value. That doesn't make much sense. If there is that much uncertainty, it's more like 25% * $500mm (half today's market cap) or lower. That's how I would break it down probalistically but with way more scenarios. Static system value conditional on chaos having occurred seems like bad analysis. There are cases where ETC wins and Ethereum is overall more valuable but you need to start with market information available.
Tbh I would have it like 5% chance (market baseline seems like the most appropriate starting point) that ETHC surpasses ETH in value, and conditional on that the ecosystem is probably worth much less likely $100mm or LTC town. There are slices where ETC wins and Ethereum but now you're 5% * some other small %.
Anyways that would be my approach. Says some guy on the internet.
Since his endorsement ETC recovered in price. Maybe he's just playing with the price. Coindesk, which he owns, may start pumping ETC now which could change the game somewhat.
should i invest on etc?
All I can say is good luck. I understand the sentiment that they feel Ethereum is tarnished forever because of the hardfork. However, Ethereum classic is not where the devs are. Besides, they were able to hardfork because it's what the majority of miners wanted in the first place.
Things could play out in various ways. If the hype is strong enough for a while, some devs might start supporting ETC.
Why the tags at the bottom? Looks awful, no? I don't get this trend.
Yeah, you have a point. I've removed them.