Hi Omar,
I recently discovered really interesting story explaining why Ethereum Classic may surpass Ethereum. It would be interesting to find out what would be your opinion on this subject matter. Here it is:
As an early Ethereum supporter, I've come to the difficult conclusion that Ethereum Classic will eventually surpass Ethereum in market capitalisation in and around the Casper transition.
Why?
I've empirically discovered (for myself) that the economics of PoW are fundamentally different than PoS.
Ethereum will excise all it's miners during the Casper transition and this will collapse its internal crypto-economy that drives its current market-cap.
Since Ethereum Classic intends to maintain PoW (even if hybridized), it will not suffer the marketcap excision of (2).
During (2), the miners will likely migrate en masse to Ethereum Classic (rather than forking) resulting in the transitive transfer of the lost ETH value into ETC (via the crypto-economics of mining).
On the basis of (1), (2), (3) and (4) and assuming nothing else environmentally changes, it's clear that this value transfer will occur. I've personally re-positioned my own holdings based on this reasoning (which was a painful decision, since I was one of those blockchain developers who berated ETC during the DAO fiasco).
Is there anything that could change this inevitable outcome?
Unlikely. Suppose that dapps like Augur or Swam City become massive successes. The demand-side liquidity they induce should offset the downside from (1)-(4), except that:
Any dapp success or innovation on Ethereum can (and most likely will) be duplicated on Ethereum Classic, since it's all open sourced.
The only scenario I see that can keep Ethereum beyond Ethereum Classic is the promise of mass scalability from Casper & Sharding. This means a dapp that cannot be computed on the Ethereum Classic network. Though this could happen (assuming casper + sharding were astounding technical successes), this scenario is far ahead into the future and all of the above still needs to occur before then.
On this basis, Ethereum Classic is likely to surpass Ethereum during the Casper transition. What are your thoughts on this?
I like that logic. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out this year is going to be very exciting going forward!
I came to a similar conclusion, casper will be a oportunity for other chains to increase their hash rate as miners shift, but does not mean they will go for etc. another thing is how i keep reading that eth is not a money, its not meant to store value but to be the first layer of the network. Im holding both coins, more import is to make as much eth as you can right now, so your in a good positiong when PoS starts.
Ethereum classic's value has gone from 1/3th of Ethereum's marketcap (after the DAO fork) to 7/100ths right now. When are you proposing this trend reversal will start to happen? Right after serenity? before it? We all know this cannot be sudden, like in two days, but it needs to pivot at some point and start reversing slowly.