The problem with all the bulls is they base everything on trends.
For example:
"Alt season" started around this time, so it's BOUND to happen again. (So far, no dice)
Bitcoin started off slow last year just like this year, and then exploded in June. Wait for it, it's coming (...doubtful).
Consensus should change their name to Catalyst because every year since 2015 the Consensus conference has been the catalyst to enormous Bitcoin growth shortly after the conference ends. (BZZZZZ, wrong again!)
I think we need to stop looking back and start looking forward. Nothing is ever that predictable. Or at least let's observe the "now." The momentum has clearly shifted when it comes to the value of crypto.
What's interesting is that crypto and blockchain are more adopted, utilized, and talked about than ever before, so why is the value dropping?! (Could it be because the value before was based heavily on hype?...)
If we want to look at trends, look at 2013-2014 and beyond.
It went something like this:
- Major spike at the end of 2013, reaching ATH (~$1150) for Bitcoin
- Huge decline entering 2014, see-sawing between 40-60% the ATH before ultimately plummeting to about $350 by the end of the year
- Settling around $225-350 for most of 2015 and into 2015.
- Nice little pop at the end of 2015 and steady growth throughout 2016, hitting about 2-4x the 2014 lows by the end of 2016.
The first two bullets seem eerily similar to what we experienced in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.
If I were betting on past trends, I would probably put some money on Bitcoin settling between $8k-$10k for the rest of 2018 and slowly working back up to $15-20k in 2019. Then 2020 and 2021, it breaks out again.
Of course, it would be great if BTC bucks that past trend and went to $1 Million by 2020 because I really don't want to see McAfee eat his d***.
Yep, I think the part that most people are missing is this very important caveat in front of these price predictions based on past trends...
"If the previous trends repeat then we could expect to see something along the lines of X..."
Right...the big "if". But that's the point. Past trends mean very little.