Last week's recap:
I said I'd sell BTC around $4,800 and rebuy all I can under $4,400. Well, the market hasn't recovered, not even trying to reach resistance at $4,000.
This past week:
Boring week?
The crypto market hasn't been sideways since early August, which is a huge relief from the bearish weeks suffered the previous two weeks. Last time it was like this ETH was in the $280-$310 range, and then it soon shot up 35% to nearly $400, will we see the same thing in these upcoming weeks?
I don't think so. Observing the volume, support is very weak for ETH above $240. You'd expect lots of buyers during an entire week with no bad news, but that's not what happened. Volume is about half what it is during a healthy period - to me, this means the smallest bad rumor will crush it.
My plans
Previously, I bought BTC/ETH at $4200/$290 playing small bounces. I'm going to keep my BTC for trading alts, but I'm going to sell most of my ETH around $300 (I would sell less if there were more alts available for trading with ETH under my conditions, but due to lack of choices I'd rather convert to fiat). Why am I in such a hurry to cash out to fiat (which is almost taboo in crypto)?
How I see ETH moving in the next 2 months:
Resistance at $300 and support at $220: (300-220)/220 = 36.4% gain.
Resistance at $350 and support at $225: (350-225)/325 = 7.7% gain.
Resistance at $380 and support at $350: (380-350)/350 = 8.5% gain.
Total compounded gain = 60%
Ignore the timeline on the chart... I can't draw on an accurate timeline.
This is very conservative IMO. If ETH bounces off any of these supports multiple times that's an additional 7-20% gain. If each bounce you can milk for 2% more that also compounds. I see a total return of 60% to 200% return depending how actively I'm able to trade and if it bounces around multiple times, and especially if it cracks previous support or resistance for only a second.
Until ETH breaks out of $400 resistance or dips below $120, there's no reason to think twice about ETH's movement - this is what I'll be sticking to.
Why ETH and not BTC?
Both BTC and ETH will move similarly, but ETH's % gains and losses will be significantly higher. Additionally, ETH is currently trading at 7-7.5% the value of BTC; back in June/July ETH was trading at 10-15% the value of BTC. This is another easy double up (although inflated and unstable) which I'll trade ETH into BTC until it's back at a base.
Next 2 months:
I plan on being less active in crypto. I'll take more macro positions in BTC, ETH, and alts. I've identified some alts I want to get, and when I want to enter and exit. Now's it's just a waiting game to get into the high EV entires. Additionally, I'll be switching my attention to javascript, which I've been too distracted from :(
P.S. Alts I'm looking at for the next month:
MAID Currently: 13 Enter: ASAP Exit: 21
GNT Currently: 67 Enter: ASAP Exit: 165
XZC Currently: 30 Enter: 20 Exit: 40
BAT Currently: 56 Enter: 40 Exit: 66
NEO Currently: 53 Enter: 49 Exit: Spikes over 140
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