I think we’re gonna see a lot of this over the next year. “Fake pump” into an even bigger drop
Just slowly sinking price
My worst case thesis: As stonks drop institutions that own BTC sell off their high risk BTC what stocks or index funds that are going for cheap. 1 trillion market cap for crypto is honestly pretty small. The next biggest players are whales that weren’t institutions. Whales might sell some if they need the money at the time, but they likely hold and don’t have liquidity to buy more during a recession. Retail won’t have more money to spend on crypto. We’re out of buyers, weakest coins go first, alt coins collapse. Maybe Eth survives, but I bet everything else takes a massive dump. BTC could easily go sub 10k when no one has money to buy and, sorry, real investments are on sale and have a huge upside.
Now as we near the end of 2023 and start of 2024, BTC could be really cheap. If inflation is under control feds are going to lower rates.
Markets and BTC will soar
If we get there and inflation isn’t under control, I still think we get a “small” pump for halving. I really have no clue on numbers for this. Hoping it doesn’t come true
If inflation is at 4% Powell won’t lower rates either. We might be in for a long ride
Today looks green so far though
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