Before I begin, I want to state that I am posting this to analyze price potential as opposed to which currencies I prefer, short term or long term. I don't claim my price predictions are any more accurate than your average bear, yet I think one has to look at the mindset of newer investors for the coming year if we do indeed see an influx of new money coming into the market throughout the course of 2018. I realize most people don't like Bitcoin Cash, and although I don't lean one way or another on the Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash debate, I will ultimately make that decision for myself as opposed to just taking the side of the masses.
With that being said, here is my unpopular case for Bitcoin Cash.
I think most can agree that Bitcoin was increasing at a rate that was at least a little faster than it could realistically maintain during the end of 2017. However, this price hike was not only a result of a substantial increase in new investors, but also had the whole world talking about it, further increasing the number of people that, at least temporarily, joined the community.
Bitcoin could not handle this, at least not last year.
Of course, the community is constantly looking to improve the way we use Bitcoin, and trying to work on scalability issues. I'm confident the community will be able to implement solutions in due time to allow for mass adoption. However, new investors that came while Bitcoin was surging likely saw the worst of the currency, and undoubtedly have a bad taste in their mouth, especially if they exited the market at a loss.
This is where Bitcoin Cash could be VERY appealing to new investors.
If we look strictly at the current state of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, I think we can agree that BCH has more potential for price growth and more real world use cases. After all, BCH is not only down significantly more from its all time high than BTC, but is currently sitting at roughly only 1/10 of the price of BTC, despite having the same maximum supply and having nearly the same ability to get a hold of via fiat currency. We can also point to merchants now switching to BCH after issues with BTC, cheaper transaction fees, and quicker transactions.
Of course, there are downsides to what Bitcoin Cash is doing as well. Those who have been in Bitcoin for a long time can tell you that technically Bitcoin Cash transactions aren't as safe, as their method for faster transactions does involve some risk. Also, there are concerns with the centralization of Bitcoin Cash, although I think this is also an issue for more of the "decentralized" currencies than most are aware of. There are also concerns with those who speak for Bitcoin Cash, as well as the community around it.
Ultimately, I think most of the crypto community doesn't like what Bitcoin Cash is doing (whether their reason for thinking this way is their own opinion or not) and I think this is why we have seen price decreases so significant relative to Bitcoin. I believe if we continued to trade crypto among the community that is already active, we might see Bitcoin Cash decrease even more relative to other currencies considering the general resentment against the currency.
However, I think those we enter the market again during the next bull run, or the new batch of investors that will (hopefully) be coming in 2018, would find Bitcoin Cash much more appealing. It is much cheaper for those who want to hold it as an investment, and is currently much more usable as a cash alternative for a variety of purchases and for a variety of people. I could easily see BCH being worth 1/4 of a BTC or more, as opposed to only roughly the 1/10 that it is now. That would be a 150% increase, not factoring in the almost inevitable massive price jump of Bitcoin itself. Even if Bitcoin declines because it can't keep up with adoption rates, I would bet that most of the coins in the top 10 could absorb a large amount of that potential market cap.
I am not saying that I prefer Bitcoin Cash over Bitcoin, or vice versa, but I am saying that I believe new money will fluctuate towards the former. This is not necessarily a long term pick, but I believe mass adoption is going to dictate which currencies dominate the market and which could ultimately become primary trading pairs, bumping up volume even more.
I still think Ether makes the most sense for a primary trading pair for the majority of crypto currencies out there, but that's another story.
Again, this is not financial advice, and anything stated here is only my opinion and should be treated as such.
Cool Post. Since you got the bitcoin tag do you have a prediction for Bitcoin over the next few days? Also followed you for future posts :)
I'm guessing people who bought in lower will take some profits because of the sudden 10% jump, which already seems to be taking place. However, I think late April and on we will see a lot of new money coming in