We are really just in a large bull pennant . Within this bull pennant we have seen a repetitive 'M' pattern with the neck line forming the tops of the subsequent smaller 'M'. If this pattern repeats one more time then we will see a break to the upside of the bull pennant to start us on our merry way back up (drawn in green).
On a side note we may already been forming an alternative smaller 'M' that will not reach the neck line of the last M. This throws the above mentioned green pattern somewhat out of wack, though if we look at using historical lows to draw trend lines you can see that each smaller M has fit nicely within a wedge that corresponds with a progressively higher low from the long term up trend. This small M that might possibly form (I have added the hypothetical neck line in pink) signals the critical pivot point as we have no more room to create a new one. Will we go up or will we go down? That is the question - however considering M's are usually bullish signs and the fact we appear to be in a large bull pennant - I would say up is the direction we will be going!
If we break $7,700 i agree 100% with your analysis, however idk if we break $7,700