Hello to all.
I chose such a blusterous title for this post right after debating with one of the crypto-currency traders. The argument ended with each one of us keeping our final thoughts to ourselves. It will be interesting to read the opinions of third-party experts of crypto-currency and financial markets.
What was the dispute about? My opponent argued the following: a technical analysis of price changes of a particular crypt is possible. Whereas I tried to convince him that the current development of crypto-currency market and its integration into the world financial system so far does not allow us to talk about any different direction of the movement of various crypto-currencies. So now, whenever fiat comes to crypto and its overall capitalization grows, everything grows and blooms. Or almost everything. However, the growth of one currency can be 5%, whilst the growth of another - 50%. If there is some kind of "disequilibrium" in the crypto-currency market - well, for example, when a token’s value shoots against the overall trend - this is either the result of some insider’s pump, or something other, that has no relationship with the market itself. So, I told my opponent that the crypto-market needs to develop an index of some kind, similar to the one of companies whose shares are traded on stock exchange markets. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which reflects the average arithmetic price of shares in enterprises that belong to the industrial and raw material sector of the economy. Or the NASDAQ Composite index, as a composite index of high-tech companies, in addition to which there are a bunch of "NASDAQ’s", which have a narrow estimated index: NASDAQ Bank Index, NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, NASDAQ Financial Index, etc. Indeed, in the stock market, firstly, there is a direct correlation between the fall or growth of stock quotes and changes in specific indices. Secondly, there is almost never such thing as the growth of, for example, the quotations of shares in companies for gas production without a rise in the value of shares companies that produce equipment for its extraction. It is clear that there are negative reports or accidents in the production, which can exclude the movement of the price of shares of a particular company from the general trend that has developed in the market. But this will only be in isolated cases, which are always an exception and not a rule.
So to conclude, we can say that the modern crypto-market has not yet reached that "disequilibrium" in order to produce independent technical analysis of various crypto-currencies, assuming that, for example, bitcoin will fall, and some alternative coin will grow. The only possible thing to do now is to do a technical analysis of the overall capitalization of cryptology. Otherwise, all the Youtube gurus of technical analysis will dwell upon on their channels about the greater degree of probability of the movement of a particular coin to a certain level of resistance, without excluding the penetration of another level of support.