I think risk-on assets bottomed in June (stocks and crypto).
I can see them going lower if the next CPI comes in hotter than expected, but don't see the SP 500 going back to 3,600.
The catalysts for rising CPI just aren't there.
M2 money growth peaked in March 21
Oil price growth peaked in March 22
Gasoline at the pump peaked in June 22
Crypto in particular has been painfully obvious over the past decade, so obvious most people can't believe it.
Bitcoin goes up after halvenings, then crashes, then finds a new equilibrium price.
This makes sense for anything with demand. If oil production was cut in half overnight, we would expect the price to go up (to say $1,000 per barrel), then fall back down to a new equilibrium price (to say $400 per barrel).
bitcoin halvenings: go up for ~12 months, crash for ~12 months, accumulation phase for ~24 months
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