Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 6 Day 7: random walks

7 October 2017

Stabilization or quiet before storm?

Another light day of trading, with Japan's yen and BTC ahead of the others (36.46% vs 35.74% for the US$). Korean Bitcoin trading accounted for 7.84%, according to worldcoinindex.

Despite several developments that change the viability of crypto with the general public, investors, and geeks, the volatility in prices was again standard for stockmarkets.

A sign of stabilization or the quiet before the storm? Nothing in trading gives a clue: the random walk hypothesis (nothing in the past predicts the future) seems in operation here.

Crypto developments

Fox Business TV does bitcoin

"Can Bitcoin break into the midstream?" asked Fox Business Network on 5 October.

Whether Fox is sceptical or not, it brings the concept to a much wider audience. "Great education, there," said the Fox anchor after the nearly six minutes of discussion. But as so often with Fox it was the self-righteous no-nothings vs the reasonable expert/bitcoin promoter: BlockTower Capital CEO Matthew Goetz.

P.S. Venezuela, South Korea and Japan were not mentioned, let alone the threat over the US dollar.

Score: +1% for wider validity

Motley Fool does cryptos

5 Cryptocurrencies You Should Know About Besides Bitcoin, wrote Max Chatsko on 4 October.

His five choices:

Ether
OmiseGO
QTum (a business to business token)
Rialto.ai, a cryyptocurrency artbitrage network
Pembicoin, "a technology platform that it hopes will manufacture rhino horn products in the lab through a combination of genetic engineering and 3-D printing".

Not my top 5 (where's Dash, Zcash or Ark?).

But on Motley Fool this gives it as wide an audience as Fox among investors.

Score: +1% for wider validity

Motley Fool on businesses that accept bitcoin

This is old, so I won't score it. But Motley Fool on 6 July listed several big businesses that accept bitcoin:

DISH network
Microsoft
Intuit
Paypal

Sean Williams notes that the token's price volatility limits its acceptance, particularly for next-day settlement. This is not an insuperable problem. It would also have been nice to see an update.

Cryptocurrency investing can make you rich — as long as you know what you’re doing

Another sign of wider acceptance of crypto: Mashable, a geek site, has this article on 5 October, along with "A pet-carrying backpack that carefully toes the line between ridiculous and amazing" and "Halloween decorations are way freakier when you project them on your window".

"You may think you’re too late to invest in cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and wear suits made of money — but you’re actually just in time," says Mashable.

It's pretty much a sales pitch for its allied courses ($10 and $15).

It's still one of my favourite places to go.

Score: +1% for wider validity

UN explores the transformative potential of blockchain for sustainable development

What are the possible implications of this new technology for trade and government services? How could it be used to advance the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? asks the UNECE (Economic Commission for Europe) in an article on 6 October.

Could existing United Nations' standards for data and processes be used for its implementation? These are just a few of the questions addressed at a conference hosted by the Italian Trade Agency in Rome as part of the 30th UN/CEFACT Forum, which gathered around 150 experts from all over the world.

CEFACT is the Centre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic Business, hosted by UNECE.

It reports:

“Blockchain can help to achieve SDG 2 for ending hunger” according to Giovanni Pio, Head of Global Change Management at the World Food Programme (WFP). WFP has implemented a pilot blockchain project to transfer benefits to refugees in Jordan with a blockchain application. As a result, related transaction fees have been reduced by 98%, and the time required for transferring benefits by 3-5 business days. Blockchain technologies can therefore be a useful tool in supporting the poorest and hardest to reach populations - thereby contributing to SDG 1 for ending extreme poverty.

How can blockchain-based services support transparency and efficiency in the shipment and handling of containers in international trade? Sean A. McKenna, Senior Research Manager at IBM Industry Academy, talked about a joint project with Maersk for tracing containers, which has been tested and is about to be rolled out. Daniel Sarr, Director of Partnerships at Gainde 2000, said that they expect blockchain to eventually "ease the submission of e-certificates and other licenses for trade transactions in Senegal – thus making trade easier and faster."

Score: +1% for wider validity

Air France Tests Blockchain for Supply Chain Tracking

Avionics reported on 3 October that "Air France KLM is Evaluating MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) Potential for Blockchain".

James Kornberg, director of innovation of the Air France KLM business unit, is quoted as saying: "The four features of blockchain are resilience, traceability, integrity and disintermediation are well suited to the aviation supply chain."

Woodrow Bellamy III reported:

Using Microsoft Azure and blockchain, Ramesh Sivasubramanian, a Ramco Aviation engineer, demonstrated the actual process of an Air France aircraft coming under an aircraft on the ground (AOG) status due to a hydraulic system failure. After troubleshooting the mock AOG situation, the engineering team concluded that the system has an actuator that is in need of repair.

Sivasubramanian then showed how an Air France engineer was able to acquire a replacement actuator by creating a blockchain ledger for it that could be viewed by the engineer, the AF KLM logistics and loan officers, and any other engineer or technician involved in getting the replacement part to Air France.

He also points out:

Lufthansa’s Industry Solutions division has created the Blockchain for Aviation (BC4A) initiative, in which it hopes to bring together software developers, aircraft manufacturers, MRO service providers and more to collectively create a foundation for the future use of blockchain in the aviation industry. The company has even introduced a one-day IT training course that “teaches participants the technical basics of blockchain solutions and demonstrates their potential,” according to its website.

Accenture also says it can help airlines “cut through the buzz” and actually start using blockchain to change the way they do business, according to a recent overview on the topic published by its aerospace consulting division.

Jeff Cass, VP of strategy for the aviation and defense business unit at IFS, also believes the combination of cloud security and blockchain can help airlines reinforce their cybersecurity protocols.

In January, IBM became one of the first companies to propose the use of Blockchain as a way to improve the aircraft maintenance process for airlines, Bellamy adds.

Score: +1% for wider validity

Unscored

Government Staffers Fired for Bitcoin Mining at work in Crimea

Stan Higgins of coindesk reported on 5 October:

Two IT workers employed by an authority in Crimea were fired late last month after they were reportedly caught mining bitcoins at work.

RIA Novosti reports that the two unnamed individuals were employees of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, part of the disputed territory's executive branch. The news service indicates the workers installed mining software on computers owned by the council, thugh the report didn't state how long the operation had been in place.

Hackers Hijack Another Ethereum ICO, This Time it’s EtherParty

btcmanager.com reported on 6 October:

Within three months since the hacking incident of the CoinDash initial coin offering (ICO) in June that led to the loss of $7 million in funds, hackers hijacked the ICO of Etherparty’s native token FUEL, redirecting investor funds to an alternative address by hacking the website of Etherparty.

bleepingcomputer.com said: Etherparty detected the attack in 15 minutes and shut down its website to prevent users from sending funds to the hackers.

Etherparty investigated the incident and restored its website after 95 minutes, allowing the ICO to continue as scheduled.

Kevin Hobbs, the CEO of Etherparty, reassured investors that investors would be fully compensated for the stolen funds.

Previous days' commentaries

Excel version

Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records key records, free for download. There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.

Superforecasting

See this post for the theory.

Indicators

I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.