Last night I wasn't able to sleep, so I clicked around in the WWW to get some inspiration, without too much effort. I read through some mainstream articles about crypto and read through my facebook accounts notifications. Somehow I missed 200 messages and 1784 status updates. Although... "missed" is the wrong word. I missed nothing...
Just as a sidenote: Quality there is even worse than on the Steem blockchain. So please stop complaining.
I stumbled upon several discussions and articles about bitcoin and shitcoins and crypto in general and I was astonished how few people really KNOW anything about the matter. I felt very much like a nerd, even if I myself have no real clue about all the things that are going on.
"Bubble" is the most used word in the articles I found, in my facebook feed and everywhere else...
Even in private discussions, the most regular response I get is:
Ahhh... crypto. That's Bitcoin, ain't it? A big bubble!! I won't invest there if I where you!
It's feeling like coming out of an echo chamber. So I had to do some digging, at least to get together some of the relevant facts.
The total of the whole cryptomarket at the moment (according to coinmarketcap) is roughly at 380 000 000 000 $. True that is a lot of zeros and apparently quite a bunch of money.
Only a few years (or only a year ago) there was much less money in the cryptomarket. Some rough numbers:
- 2013 total worth of crypto 1 000 000 000 $ (one billion OR about what steem alone is "worth" today)
- 2014 total worth of crypto 6 000 000 000 $
- 2015 total worth of crypto 4 000 000 000 $
- 2017 (April) 25 billion $
- 2017 (December) 650 billion $
- 2018 (January 7th ) 813 billion $ at its peak so far.
Keynes would speak of a bubble and wait for the crash
At the moment, with a total worth of near 400 billion, the whole cryptomarket is worth about half as much as each of these: Amazon ( near 800 billion ), google ( Alphabet is worth near 800 billion), apple (near 900 billion) or about as much worth as facebook ( around 540 billion $ ).
If we look closer at facebook, we see 2013 a total marketcap of about 60 billion. This was after they joined the stock market. Facebook grew from 0 to 800 000 members from 2004 to 2011. Almost noone really speaks of a bubble in that context...
This one is even better (although slightly outdated )
From this perspective, there is still a lot of space for mooning (pun intended). If McAfee is right about BTC replacing gold as a long term investment and value storage, we are ahead of big times. Even if BTC becomes only a fraction of that role, cryptos are still far away from being "a bubble".
Are there dangers and volatility? YES
Are there shitcoins worth exactly ZERO? YES
Will it be BTC? Possibly not.
If we look at it from yet another perspective (the most interesting in my opinion) there is even more!
If we look at blockchain technologie as a gamechanging event like the invention of the printing press, the steem enginge, electricity or the internet, then EVERYTHING changes. I don't think that this is a very wide stretch, if we only look at the countless usecases only the steem blockchain can cover. Let't talk about a fraction or even a replacement of traditional banking...
For the moment there is only a very small number of people invested in Bitcoin (probably less than 1%). For ALT-coins this number is even much smaller (like about 0.1 % or less) compared to about 10% of the worlds population invested in stocks. (at least these numbers apply in the western world. probably these numbers are much lower for the rest of the world)
If we agree that crypto is a bubble...
Then his is the graph usually used to do so:
Let's look at if for a second:
sure this red line can almost be put anywhere.
Here is my question:
With so few people still using it, so insanely widespread possibilities, isn't it wise to assume crypto being a disruptive innovation instead of a bubble? The only way this "bubble" could burst, is by regulation, which several times has led to similar events.
I wouldn't advise anybody to invest all their assets into crypto, still I'll call anybody stupid, who has not at least some coins in a wallet. If you understood that, we possibly can start to talk about freedom.
Everything is subjectively worth exactly as much as you are willing to pay for it!
I don't think regulation can stop it at this point.
Don't you love crypto haters on facebook? They know nothing about it but can't wait to express their opinions about it's a bubble and will burst. The only reason some one would want another person's investment to fail is they are jealous they didn't profit. Imagine how much hate you would get for telling someone you hope their pension plan collapses? But it's okay to wish financial ruin on crypto investors.
This is the point I fear... most people (even quite smart ones) don't have a clue about crypto. People tend to destroy what they fear. Look around you. Even here people try to talk about equality and fairness and THEREFORE regulations. If there are no working markets inside the crypto scene, then it could still be destroyed quite easily (imho).
I love the comparison cryptoinvestment vs. pension plan. Thx for this idea.
Ja, es gibt noch viel Luft nach oben und meiner Meinung nach können Cryptocurrencies nicht reguliert werden. Dazu müsste die ganze Welt zusammenarbeiten. Und zwar gegen den Willen der Bevölkerung. Das finde ich doch ziemlich unwahrscheinlich. Zwar wird es weiter Regulierungsversuche geben, aber die Cryptocurrencies werden nach und nach stetig weiter wachsen, bis sie ins alltägliche Leben Einzug erhalten. Dann wird man sich wünschen rechtzeitig dabeigewesen zu sein.
Ich sehe es ähnlich, wobei ich z.B. in der Kriminalisierung oder abnormen Steuern an den Exitpunkten durchaus nachhaltig schädigende Regulierungsmöglichkeiten sehe. Wie es mal ein Freund von mir formuliert hat:
Das kann Fluch und Segen zugleich sein. Ich bin gespannt, wohin die Reise geht und bin froh schon in den Zug eingestiegen zu sein.
Vertrauen wir doch darauf, dass die sich die Mühe nicht machen werden.
What's this?
the red numbers... the thing that doesn't work on steemit frontend ;-)
To be more specific, what is Facebook?
Something "old people" use...
Oh I see :)
Heute habe ich doch noch irgendwo gehört, daß es kein Problem ist, in eine Blase zu investieren, wenn man nur rechtzeitig wieder rauskommt.
Wenn ich mir - wohlgemerkt als Laie - die allegemeine Marktlage so angucke, dann glaube ich einige Blasen sehen zu können...
Ob der Kryptomarkt bereits eine ist, nein, das wage ich mangels Wissens nicht zu beurteilen. Aber wenn ich mich so umhöre, dann kenne ich im realen Leben niemanden (außer Steemians), die Kryptowährungen besitzen. Spricht das für eine Blase?? Ich meine nein....
@pollux.one The total of the whole cryptomarket at the moment is roughly at 380 000 000 000 $ oh my word that's a whole lot of number😳😳
The graph showing the rise and fall of bubbles is another to carefully study.
And you are right when you said no one speaks of a bubble in the context you analyzed Facebook total market cap.
I've been thinking deeply on investing in crypto and still trying to make my research.
Thanks so much for the crypto advice @pollux.one
That's the perfect advice you can give to anybody.
Invest only that much which you can easily afford and don't have to sell your house lol
Pretty summary of what we tell people (who ask us or raise a question) - Thanks for the statistics!! With any investment it is never smart to go in with all you have - the overall mixture is the best way to avoid great losses!
Cheers to you from the Seven Mountains in Germany!
I love your research on MONEY (Cryptocurrency & Bank Money). I think this post is sufficient to open the eyes of those people who don't believe on Cryptocurrency. Great work with exceptional quotes. Amazing @pollux.one, keep it up and stay blessed!
Informative news.Thanks for sharing it
everyone is not having such amount of money to invest in crypto, some are poor also, one can't go for it but i agree there are some coins too which have very low cost but we can't trust those coins as there are lot of scam coins too...
Yes its wise to assume crypto a disruptive innovation, I also loved your advice, we should not invest all our assets in crypto because we don't know what's gonna come next.
I completely agree with you, in any investment need to have a measure and invest the last savings, this is not the right decision, but I do not consider Bitcoin a bubble and invested a portion of the funds boldly! Thank you @pollux.one
Interesting statistics and the arguments given. Of course you are right not to keep all of your invests in one place. Thanks for the information.
Something informative. Yeah nowadays crypto is dominating. Yeah great advise. Donot invest all your money. Only invest which you can bear and easily manage.
Invest only that much which you can easily afford and don't have to sell your house lol
Yeah great advise. Donot invest all your money. Only invest which you can bear and easily manage.
Thanks for sharing. I've smashed the upvote button for you! I think the proce speaks for itself and that more and more industries are adopting it.
Also, if you are looking to get some tokens without investing or mining check out Crowdholding (https://www.crowdholding.com). They are a co-creation platform were you get rewarded for giving feedback to crypto startups on the platform. You can earn Crowdholding's token as well as DeepOnion, ITT, Smartcash and many other ERC-20 tokens.
Good information. I somehow did not think about it, the block chain completely changed my life. And I'm sure that everything is still ahead. Thank you for sharing.
Find out something new from your post
Thanks a lot for him
I hope we can learn more in the future
i agree with you ...Occasionally I also saw many posts with crypto. .
thank you @pollux.one share with us
@pollux.one thanks for your valuable and informative post.
We can take out a lot of information by your post.
By dint of we can increase our skill that is beneficial for all steemians.
I will always visit your site & wait for your upcoming post.
Thanks .
@Resteem
This information make some sense about investing in btc.
It is about making you think from a different perspective.
Excellent post good analyses thanks for sharing.
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Great advice my friend. Doesn't hurt you to invest some coins in crypto. But I think you should only invest what you can afford to lose. But you should never compromise your money that you cannot afford to lose.
Your analysis much better and great information sharing to community for secure something. Your details very useful for us @pollux.one. Invest only our trustable & searched once. Thanks again.
This is not surely a buble according to me.
It really sums it up, and it is good to see some figures in relation to understand where we are at the moment. It really depends how government and authorities are going to take it. Regulation could be a stimulation as well, as it could increase trust and adoption. An the other hand it could also strangle the whole crypto world to death. I hope for the first one!
The bubble just keep getting better and better :)
I think you have a word to share and thqts so true..it is just like leaving all your eggs in one basket.not too advisable..thanks for this notice @pollux.one
Great information and analysis shared @pullux.one
We are moving forward and these crash are some hurdles we have to cross and all we have care about is the result, which is so bright as crypto's are the future. People will accept and join but it can take some time.
And all the crypto haters, who was saying bitcoin a bubble at $250, $1000 ,$10000, $20000 are shit and will say the same when it will cross $100000. So i don't care about them.
By the way, you can take a look at my profile if you are interested in crypto information. Thank you
Those who say it the bubble make the most profit out of it and that will always remain true