As you said history repeats itself. Miners are also mining the coins i.e. BTC and BCH depending upon what is profitable to mine, switching between the two blockchains. Especially BCH which is more subject to more volatility. I see people moving their profits to Litecoin as the alternative. This also has lead LTC to reach all time highs presently. I wont buy BTC any time soon as i am anticipating a price drop in October, ahead of the November hard fork.
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I agree and its just not worth the current risk/reward in my mind. Litecoin has seen fantastic gains in the last few weeks and I am holding onto them. Playing around in the markets now with small amounts that I can afford to lose. I think if BTC drops a lot of coins will follow. For me its about understanding the problem a cryptocurrency is trying to solve, the size of the existing market and the potential for long term growth. There are a few gems that I believe are still good investments at the current price as they are blue ocean strategies.