Sup guys!
This is my first post so welcome and thank you for reading.
My situation:
I've been using Bitcoins and other coins for a while but only recently started investing. Mostly altcoins as I am looking for shorter to medium term earnings at the moment, especially since I am starting off with not that much to actually invest. If you aren't aware, tomorrow, August 1st, Bitcoin might be forking into another coin, Bitcoin Cash. Everyone holding Bitcoin in a wallet where they have the private key, or exchanges were they have specifically stated they are doing so will give the equivalent amount of Bitcoin Cash out to people holding Bitcoin. This sounds intriguing but I do not think it is this simple.
Nothing is free...
Introducing free coins into the market out of thin air won't be good for the price of the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. I believe that there are two possible outcomes if Bitcoin does split. One is that the price of Bitcoin will go down to match the amount that was lost supplying people with the new Bitcoin Cash. Or that one of the coins, I'm strongly leaning towards Bitcoin Cash, will drop, or just eventually fade away. This is my opinion and I'm not a professional but that's what I think is going to happen. If I were holding Bitcoin, or especially invested in Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash right after the fork, I would see this as a major risk. For people who have Bitcoin already, I would see the best outcomes in the long term, keeping an eye on the new coin especially in the coming weeks.
What I'm going to do:
I am currently not holding any Bitcoin as I recently started investing in cryptocurrencies and stayed mostly around alt coins. When it started to get closer to the split, I sold all my altcoins and I am currently holding my investment money in fiat currency on the market Bitfinex. If and when the Bitcoin fork happens, I am going to keep a close eye on the markets, and as I stated before, I am expecting a dip in either Bitcoin, or both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, and maybe even other alt coins with potential. This is where I see possibility. The current futures of Bitcoin cash are pretty good for a new coin decreasing slowly currently around $293 at the time of posting. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/
If Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin dip, I will be investing because I'm expecting a recovery in the coming days or weeks. If Bitcoin Cash dips down low (below $100), I see potential to make great returns. I don't believe that the fork can happen and Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash can keep their current prices because of the introduction of free coins into the market.
TL;DR: I'm not holding Bitcoin, only fiat currency in an exchange and will be investing when and if Bitcoin or the new coin Bitcoin Cash dip because of the introduction of free coins. I don't think that holding Bitcoin with the intention of making money from the fork is the best idea and if that is what you're doing (holding for the short term thinking to make money), I believe you won't make anything from the fork, only possibly in the long term if the price of Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash both go up.
What do you guys think will happen?
Do you agree with me?
Thanks for reading!
I think this is a well reasoned assessment of the situation. I do agree with you, and have similarly stayed out of BTC for the time being.