I'd honestly be pretty excited to see Bitcoin in the 3000-5000 range for the next year/18 months... that's another year of me converting small monthly amounts from fiat to crypto... and it would shake out all the speculative "investors" who don't actually care about the tech, they just want to make a quick buck (ironically).
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Exactly, and honestly it went this way last time too which is why I think it will happen again. It's just a matter of psychology.. there's only like 15% of the investors who end up being 'true' hodlers during a crypto winter. But the last remaining weak hands to be shaken out it takes a while to really wear down their faith.
My other theory is that those weak hands being shaken out now, are the ones who will eventually propel Bitcoin to new all-time-highs when they return in 1-2 year from now when Bitcoin hits the news again. By then they will have their experiences from this bubble, coupled with their regrets of selling, and a newfound conviction that Bitcoin is indeed the phoenix that always resurrects. In my estimation one's faith in Bitcoin increases exponentially with the amount of bubbles one has seen it go through.
Not sure if it's going to take another year to reverse, I am hoping for sooner, but I'm ready for anything and I too see it as some breathing space to accumulate. Not at all rich in RL so my ability to buy in has been limited, and some extra time is not at all a bad thing.
Well.... I work in IT... so around Nov/Dec/Jan last year, everyone was talking about Bitcoin, but they honestly didn't really understand what it was all about... I became a bit of a defacto expert and I told anyone who asked not to buy in at those prices.... but I know some guys that did anyway... and a few of them spent $5k or more when prices were super high... and have obviously been depressed all year.
As far as I know, they haven't sold their crypto... but I'll start checking in with them more regularly to see where they're upto... they can be my 'normal person gauge' (which I think is pretty much the exact same as being aware of what CNBC is reporting).
I honestly have no idea on timing... so I'm happy to just cost average in until it starts to get crazy again.
If they really spent like $5K on it at ATH's and are still hodling, kudos to them for having pretty strong hands (or having enough money so that 5K is pocket change to them)
But the REAL crypto winter is really depressing. Right now is only a taste of it..
I mean, I talk a big talk about being a hodler since 2013 but the truth of the matter is that the main reason I hodled was because the price was so low that I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to sell to fiat... I just figured.. meh. Crypto and prices were so depressing that I kind of lost track for a large part of 2016. I lost all hope of recovery and probably would've cashed out my measly few hundred dollars worth of crypto if there were an easy way back then. Because for all intents and purposes Bitcoin had died and from the looks of it, it was never coming back or at best stay a really small niche thing.
I think the depression will get a lot worse still. I hope is for a 3K bitcoin bottom but I am keeping a $1250 bitcoin in mind too. And while it sounds nice today, if it really goes that low then something will have happened that will make all of us think that it's a terrible idea to still invest in bitcoin... like throwing away money. And it's going to stay there for a damn long boring time too.
It's so damn hard to actually buy low, because if it's low then there is a reason it is so low (maybe banned, maybe overtaken, etc.) and the psychology works completely against you
I was the speculative investors, sadly, in 2015. This year I HODL. My meagre savings will turn out to be something, and I've paid for the education.