Hello there all my steemit friends!!! It is a good news for everyone that Bitcoin is back above 6000$ level. But there are uncertainties and disbelief going on in crypto market. Who knows what will happen next in its price movement? Due to this unpredictability of bitcoin and altcoin price action it is very much confusing when to enter and when to exit the market. Generally people should buy the lows and sell highs, but due to its uncertain price movement people often failed to gain profits, maximum number of times people do the opposite, buying the highs and selling the lows, Which made them huge losses and next time they could not even imagine to invest again because they are already in a great loss by that time. So it is an important question that how to know where the market is going? One should have a general idea about how the market cycle operates. If one will understand this then he will have a better perspective of where his investments are heading and he will be able to minimize the risk level that is always associated with this crypto market. We will discuss about that in the next paragraph but before that just have a look at the current price of Bitcoin below. It’s a good sign that we did not broke the strong 6k support level otherwise we would have a more chance of incoming bear market for months. I am so glad that we have met a strong support level between 5700$ to 6200$. Which indicates that uptrend is going to start within few weeks.!
For confirmation of market movement towards uptrend lets have study how the market cycle works. It is a strong belief that technical analysis of charts is the most useful tool to survive in any market. So we have to be a little technical here in order to understand the nature of a market cycle. It’s not that hard for any layman to understand some basic concepts of market cycles, as it is related to the sentiments of investors that drives the market. If you look at the chart of Bitcoin, you will see candlesticks that has been forming side by side either in upward or in downwards direction randomly depending upon buying and selling pressure of market. But if you follow the market and start analysing it within a longer timeframe then you can see that there a pattern is forming and this pattern repeats itself again and again on the chart. Is it a coincidence or it is playing by big investors each time? The right answer is big players always have a better view of how this cycle works and benefit themselves again and again every time when there is an opportunity occurs. They always know about the upcoming phase in market cycle. So to understand about these cycles just look at the picture below, Here It is showing some sentiments and emotional phases of investors during the market cycle and how it affects the price movement in the market. Later on in this article we will relate these sentiments and different phases with Bitcoin and altcoin price movements.
As we can see the market phases repeat itself every time, we can understand where and in which phase we are currently in. In the picture above the cycle repeats from optimism to optimism but in between there a number of sentiments going on. These sentiments control our investment strategy.
At first comes optimism. During this phase people strongly believes that market is going straight to the upward direction. So it may be the right time to invest whatever they have to invest. So without any knowledge or analysis they invest heavily. Because the market is moving upwards people become more excited about their investments. They started to belief that they have made a correct decision and invested at the right time. It does not take much time to move from excitement to the stage of thrill.
During the stage of thrill they decides to buy more and and tells everyone in their friend circle and family that they are gaining huge profits. So they start to invest more and sometimes borrow from others or by taking a loan to invest in a hope that they will get huge returns and will refund them from the part of their profits made in future.
Then there a time comes when they belief themselves to be the smartest person in the world, because they have made their investments doubled or tripled within a shorter period of time. This is the phase that is known as Euphoria, Where people become over confidence about their investments and decisions. Here in this phase people thought themselves as a rich person and they need no job or any hard work to earn something for their future. Some people are also foolish enough to left their job and make their decisions to do full time trading. Which in real turn out to be a bad decision.
But market manipulators or whales are always waiting for this phase where they can grab huge amounts profits, because ordinary investors who do not have a technical knowledge about the market cycle do the opposite thing, when whales are selling they are buying more without knowing that the market momentum is going to shift downwards. When whales started to sell off market starts to fall and the people who have bought at all-time highs now could not sell because they have to sell in a loss. So they wait more with a hope that market will move upward again and it is just a correction.
Then when market falls more they started to feel anxiety that this correction is taking longer than expected. Then they convince themselves that they have invested in great projects which will compensate their loss and will return them huge profits. But when the market turns out to be red and move more downwards for a dip they start to feel panic. They now start to think that they should get out of the market because everything is red and everyone is selling. At last they sold with huge losses instead of profits. During this period they regret why not they sold when it was at its all-time highs. Then they begin to complain everyone and the crypto market itself that they will never invest again in this volatile market because they loose huge amount of money which they could have saved for their future. Here comes the depression stage where they think of themselves as an idiot to invest in this market. Because the market dips more day by day. Everywhere it seems like bloodbath and everything is red.
But the whales and market manipulators always waiting for this period to buy and accumulate more , because they knows that again uptrend will start from here and this market is hitting the bottom and they can earn huge profits by investing at this right moment, This is the moment when others are selling and whales are buying.
Now because whales have earned huge profits from the last uptrend they invest huge amounts of money into the market. By which the market again jumps back and starts to follow uptrend slowly. Again there seems a hope for the investors who had lost huge amounts of money during this last cycle. This makes people slowly become optimistic and the market completes one cycle.
Now as you know little about market cycle just look at the picture below and relate to the paragraph above that where we are currently at?
As per my knowledge, I think we are in the stage of disbelief and moving towards the phase of optimism. It confirms that uptrend is few weeks ahead.
In the second part (will be posted on steemit later on today evening) I will confirm it with more proofs that market is going towards uptrend and a Bitcoin and altcoin rally is coming in near future.
Thanks for reading my blog and market cycle analysis. I hope you enjoyed it. So keep following me for the next part….
Thank you
Excellent market cycle analysis @bibekchandra. The way you explained everything is so extraordinary. I never had an idea about this market cycles and always frustrated with market price action.but after reading your post my view of market has completely transformed now. What an analysis you have made... It's so technical and based on facts, very few people might have know these real facts. Please keep posting I will ensure to follow you. I also upvoting you and waiting for your next part... Thanks a lot
thank you @babulurao for your appriciation...Please follow me for the upcoming next part of CONFIRMED BITCOIN UPTREND analysis..
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By reading your post one thing is confirmed that we are now entering the optimism phase ...And market is going upwards in few weeks ...But can please tell me when this market will boom?
Market prediction is based upon different cycles. But as you have read by now that uptrend is slowly starting in few weeks or months. Just let know yourself that we are near the bottom so it is right time to invest in small amounts day by day by analyzing the market situation.
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Hey @Bibekchandra it's a very interesting analysis. I think your market analysis is really considerable. It is the right time to buy. I completely agree with you.. thank u for posting..Keep it up
Thank you brother @bibekchandra for your information.
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Your post had been curated by the @buildawhale team and mentioned here:
https://steemit.com/curation/@buildawhale/buildawhale-curation-digest-07-05-18
Keep up the good work and original content, everyone appreciates it!