Hey there old friend! Good to see you're still alive and kicking! Bought any crypto yet? (It's a really good time...😉 )
Of course you would take issue at some of the things I've said, it's in your job description! I've missed having you around to keep me honest! As usual (and as per my job description), I will counter-argue my points:
You're quite right, the market has been oversold for a few months already. That pressure is so high that it's escaping in random outbursts. You can contain it, but not indefinitely! I time line is not definite, but it is limited.
I beg to differ on the leading indicator story. By measuring a change in price differences (i.e. price momentum) those indicators I mentioned can show a possible upswing before the price actually starts to move upwards. Momentum changes before price does!
When BTC turned positive:
The Stoch - first with an overbought indication, then a probable climb prediction:
As you can see that's well before BTC bottomed. Sure, nothing is certain, but used with other analysis techniques I find it quite reliable. And cough cough leading cough. Pardon my cough.
Yes the @investorsclub have been great. I've also been very fortunate to have been recruited by @timm as an Alpha tester/mentor for their platform which is under development. Beta testing opened today if you are interested.
You still doing your Steem gaming? I tried a little steemgar and enjoyed it. Perhaps I'll look further into Steem games when I have more time on my hands.
Damn, you still got that retail trader mentality, have I taught you nothing ? :-)
The most important thing is price, always. Momentum is derived from price movement, not the other way around. Have a look at 'reversion to mean', I wrote an article about it as well
https://steemit.com/trading/@tradergurl/crazy-exes-and-reversion-to-the-mean
I'm still playing Steemnova and doing ok so far, really enjoy it and it fits in with my trading day well as it's not a full time game, more like chess. I'll check out the timm thing, see how much of a scam it is lolol :-)
If you hit the brakes while driving a car you'll know roughly when and where it is going to stop before it does. You're not measuring momentum, you're measuring rate of change of momentum and predicting future speed from it. Same with price.
TIMM is completely scam free. They aren't making any money from it, at least not yet. Later on it will have subscription services. I chat to the developers daily on discord, a good bunch of people. Note that it's definitely not a finished product yet.
Using a car is probably a good analogy. You're using an assumption that the car is going to come to a 'predictable' halt. What if the car just slows briefly and then speeds up again ? Unless you're psychic and can tell the future then you just don't know.
You're making the same mistake that all retail traders make, which is to believe that the indicator is telling you something that it's not. It's no coincidence that 95% of people lose money trading, and it's because they all believe the same bullshit.
Have you never questioned that ??? I mean at the end of the day it's literally a 50/50 decision at worst, the price is going to go up, or the price is going to go down. So why the fuck do 95% of people get it wrong ? The statistical probability of being 95% wrong on a 50% chance is astronomical....
You need to understand that all the knowledge you've obtained is part of a huge industrial system designed to take the money from dumb people and put it in the pockets of rich people. Virtually everything you think you know about trading is wrong, deliberately !
I know your not exactly a newb but I'm genuinely trying to help you from my own experience. I used to be where you are, and lost an awful lot of money. When you start trading full time, looking at charts for 12 hours a day, 6 days a week, all the bullshit becomes very evident very quickly. Virtually nothing works as it should in the real world, only in dumb YouTube 'tutorial' videos with referral links to brokers. I really wish you could see it man, I really do.
Sure, look at all the past performance charts and mentally curve fit all the 'good' results that fit with your indicator (and gloss over the fact that 3 times as many occasions don't work). Anyone can be an expert after the fact. Try doing on the right hand side of the chart, where you have to do it in the real world as the patterns form and you don't have the value of hindsight...
Like I keep saying though, the proof is in the pudding. After a very long slog and a couple near misses I now make reasonable money at trading. And I do it exactly the same way that the other 5% do it, because we all do it the same way, no magic. Like an alcoholic, you first need to accept you're in the 95% and you don't know shit before you can become a sober 5%'er.
Damn, I miss writing articles, but as I found out on Steemit it's pointless trying to teach people how to trade for a living when everyone is already an expert and know it all already :-) They just never admit that they suck or need to learn anything, so probably don't deserve to be rich anyway ;-) (not aimed at you)
Hey, you might just be right. Not about trading in general, you're definitely right there, but about me specifically.
Thank you very much for your efforts and explanations, I mean that from the bottom of my heart.
I know you and I see this world very differently, and that's okay. In the same way that you wish I could see the manipulation of charts, which I can't - at least not like you can; I wish you could see my holistic future for blockchains.
Unfortunately one of us is going to be wrong. I would be remiss to assume that it isn't me, thereby demonstrating the very optimism bias I like to warn against. At the same time, and taking into account what you say, I can't deny the conclusions of my own research and deductions. You might not agree with them (okay, you clearly don't agree with them), but I'm sure you can see the folly in doing the opposite of what you believe. Best case scenario: I'm right and you'll lose nothing because you have no crypto. Worst case scenario, I lose my favourite hobby as all my coins crumble to zero while you say "I told you so!".
I hope you will reconsider blogging a bit again. I enjoyed your posts. You may not have had quantity in readers but you did have quality ones! 😁
I'm sure I've said this before, I'm actually a crypto enthusiast and want to see it flourish and grow and I hope it does. I probably care more about crypto than most of the people on here !
The difference is, I want an anonymous means of peer to peer wealth transfer outside the regulation of banks and governments, whereas everyone else doesn't give a shit about it, to them it's only a means to make a quick buck, get rich quick (lol, are they in for a shock).
Speculation has completely ruined crypto for now. In order for it to work properly and be used as an actual currency then the price needs to stabilise, so all the speculators should just fuck off and leave it alone.
The irony is, the price won't rise unless the mainstream financial industry gets involved, and it won't get involved because it's too unstable ! Talk about a catch-22...
That's just my views anyway, I love crypto but it got ruined by greedy assholes who don't care about it. Until everyone leaves it alone it'll almost certainly remain on the fringes. I look forward to the day when everyone drops it, becomes stable, and can be used for it's original purpose as a means of transaction.
So we both want crypto to do well, just for entirely different reasons :-)
Not at all! Sure I want to get rich from crypto, of course I do. But I would rather see crypto take down governments. That's a bigger win for me!
From this post: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/regulation-is-good-for-decentralisation