Your Bitcoin gut feeling is likely correct and I fully agree with it. That being said people will likely still be in a state of fear as we approach the August 1st date (fear of the unknown) so the price ups/downs during this lead-up may still get quite intense.
I also have a prediction which may take place which may intensify the fear around that date. You know how recently BTC accidentally hardforked on the TESTNET? Well I have a feeling that those news stories on that TESTNET event are going to resurface on August 1st when lots of people start to Google "Bitcoin Hardfork" which will then serve those users the several week old TESTNET hardfork articles, and many users wont realize the article is out of date and is talking about the TESTNET (not the live chain). Basically many users may read these old articles and panic thinking they are referring to an error or official hardfork on the live BTC blockchain when it is in fact not. Just a hunch, but I could easily see this taking place and causing unjustified fear on Aug 1st, but I guess only time will tell.