Hmm.... as you say bitcoin might be of influence, but with the iminent mainnet launch and its insecurities, i guess that what'll determine further movement maybe more than btc. I would rather go for your bearrish scenario short term, there are no relevant news ahead....
We'll see. I think the biggest factor holding back the market is the fear of the SEC classifying certain crypto as a security...which would include EOS. Until there's regulatory clarity, we won't see much new money entering the market.
Has there been any news on that? The fud around eth a few weeks ago turned out unfounded and they repeatedly said they intend not to over regulate
The truth is, the meeting that was supposably scheduled for May 7th was untrue. HOWEVER, the overall story is not just FUD. The SEC is trying to decide whether or not to classify certain coins as a security. Anyone saying this is just FUD hasn't done their research.
The SEC will make a decision on this at some point. Personally, I believe they'll meet in the middle. Maybe giving a pass to coins already in existence, as long as they comply moving forward. I can't see them just keeping their hands off crypto. When has the government EVER left profitable companies alone? But they also can't wipe them out as that would destroy innovation as well as a ton of tax revenue. So we'll see what happens.
If you're interested, this guy does a great job separating fact from fiction, while explaining the current situation with the SEC:
Just to get things into perspective: What i wanted to qualify as FUD was the May 7 story, not your arguments on a general uncertainties about possible SEC ruling.
Having said this i believe that rumours about restrictive regulation in US are still greatly exaggerated. First we know from history that policy makers in the US have a strong tendency to support technical revolutions and disruptions, and carefully look into not to chocking it by regulation even if it is accompanied by fraud and scam. This might be even state reasoning for all US as history, with the internet hype in the late 90ies being the latest example, where regulators explicitly affirmed this policy.
And why should that - of all things - now change under a president trump with his enterpreneur-ethos and anti-institutionalism???
Even more, US regulators are certainly aware of global permeability of technology and will have enough foresight to understand, that crypto-innovation would just happen elsewhere (China/Asia!) if it were outregulated in the US.
So although a negative ruling is not impossible, it's just not very realistic.
And finally - although i would keep it in good memory - i wouldn't really miss Ethereum, being exposed again to ridiculous fee-spikes like those we have been having over the recent weeks. Better positioned projects (EOS!) not only will cease to annoy us with impracticality, a huge effort is put into circumventing any possibility to classify them as securities, so here is just one more reason not be worried too much.
Man i should publish this as an article....
I agree they won't over regulate because, as I said above, it would destroy innovation in the US. That said, I also don't think they're going to keep their hands off crypto...especially coins like ethereum. As I said, when has the government EVER left a successful business model alone?
They will most likely meet somewhere in the middle...and people want to know what the rules will be. It's not a matter of doom and gloom. It's simply a matter of people wanting to know the rules before they play the game. That said, until we have such rules in place, I don't think we'll see any large amounts of new money enter crypto....and I can't blame them. Let's hope this gets resolved very soon.
AMEN to that my friend! ;-)
We do expect announcements upon or shortly after successful launch of new dAPPS that are going to launch on the blockchain. Any holders will benefit from airdrops of course, so there is incentive to buy the dip and hold going forward. The risks on launch can't be ignored but with 110+ block producers cooperating to make the launch smooth, that's what we hope it will be, without issues.
No question the network will run after a while but it might take a week, there might be bugs, chain could get out of sync, tokens frozen, no standard wallet, no voting portal, it will be certainly a very good opportunity for buying the dip if you've the guts....