Personally, I took advice from what I've seen to be good in stocks. Index funds tend to reign supreme over active management. So I put a big chunk into Crypto20 as a bullish bet towards crypto in general. Only because I think that long term the top currencies will only increase in value. So while this hinges my asset value on essentially 20 different currencies, I think the diversifcation in this instance is smart. Generally I agree with you though. One shouldn't just go about buying into ever new ICO they see or every new coin in the hopes that one moons. That is exactly gambling as you said.
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As @ervinneb remind us in one of his article: "96% of actively managed mutual funds fail to beat the market over any sustained period of time!"
If we take the top 20 coins by marketcap, some of them look very weak (iota, bytecoin...). Overall your balance should increase, but with a few good picks only, the returns would be higher.
thanks for reading!