I like your analysis in general but I don't agree with you on Bitcoin dominance. I think the cat's out of the bag with altcoins. Even though all these coins are just like stocks to people and they know very little about the underlying projects, money will still keep poring that way. Even if BTC dominance returns to 40-45% briefly, it's my opinion that 30 or even 25% is a long term figure. The only way I see that number going close to all time high again is if the crypto bubble pops.
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I think it's too soon to say, but we'll see how it turns out - should be interesting. I agree that bubble popping would definitely lead to a spike in dominance though.