I fully agree on the cash currency idea and the fact there will be only 1 or 2 in the long run. I also think there 3rd category that we already have will stay, and those are the privacy coins (monero, dash, etc.). Most likely they will not be as used as the first two groups but as VPN, ProtonMail, Tor and all those systems are gaining popularity, I think they will be able to survive and generate their own niche.
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I had completely forgotten about privacy coins! There will always be a market there for illegal trading as well as private transactions. It'd be neat to see more development in that sector although I guess it's kept quiet for a reason. Which do you prefer between Monero and Dash, I considered both at a time but never bought.
I'm on Monero side... The big different is that Monero is focusing energy on privacy and security, Dash in UX and adoption. I prefer the Monero's strategy because by creating a solid coin they are focusing on the main reason why they created a privacy coin... With the early stage of each coin I think that keeping the 'light' far away is actually a good strategy.