Months ago I talked about how to know when a market is overheated. It's a lot easier to tell when it's heated than when it's reaching bottom... People at the top are a lot louder, because they believe they're genius traders, they're rich and they've figured it all out. At the bottom, people aren't so public in admitting that they've lost thousands of dollars. So it gets quiet.
And it has been quiet for the last month. Now with Bitcoin dropping again, it seems like nobody is even crying about their lost fortunes... Just declaring death once again. So has crypto reached a bottom?
Scroll down to watch and listen to the episode.
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Price action and people reaction
On the 14th of November, bitcoin dropped from $6300 to $5600, very suddenly. You probably noticed. Today on the 19th it took another drop to $5300.
What I've been noticing the last month or so is that of course, the crypto market has been very flat. When things do rally, there aren't as many cheerleaders saying "bitcoin is back". A friend said to me, "Kurt, I respect you because you're the only one still talking about bitcoins". Then when this drop happened, I didn't hear anyone saying "oh no, I've lost a fortune." Instead I see people saying the dream is over, RIP.
Jeff Berwick noted in a recent speech how few people are showing up to conferences, saying that in 2017 he saw conferences with 5000 attendees, but now there are far fewer, despite the good news such as Fidelity launching a crypto trading platform, Steve Wozniak co-founding a blockchain VC fund, and Jack Dorsey of Twitter saying Bitcoin is the currency of the future.
Take heart
The other day my friend said to me, I don't think I'll buy any crypto, it's too hard to pick the bottom. I said if that's your logic, you'll never invest in anything ever. I said, do you think anybody who bought bitcoin at $300 is crying now that they didn't buy it at $200? You gotta keep things in perspective.
Be greedy when others are fearly, be fearful when others are greedy. When you see a whole bunch of people bouncing out of the market, the temptation might be to depart with them. The hype is gone, the hope is gone, would that last candle of faith burning in your heart go out with them? This market belongs to those who see when others will not look, to take heart when men shrivel, and to have wits when others have lost their entire heads. Is there still courage within you friend, does your dream yet live?
Shout outs
I'd like to give a shout out to all the people who commented on my last video on Steemit. It got over 170 comments, some less spammy than others, some more respectful than others. A lot of people disagreed with me, but many had positions based on knowledge and reason. Thanks @mikeonfire, @transisto, @silentscreamer, @joeyarnoldvn, @sames, @frdem3dot0, among others.
Thanks again to all those people leaving those 5 star ratings on iTunes. Have a great day and stay grateful!
The Episode
You can listen to the episode on Anchor and other podcasting services here: Cryptonomics - Crypto Crash November 2018. Or watch on YouTube below:
Said the suckers that put money and are now losing their shirts. Can you tell me what the fundamentals are that are causing cryptos to go up or down? Nobody knows....except some who said it's purely based on exuberance and speculation.
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."(c) So, now it's time to be greedy, right?
Maybe
you sound really funny and also smart when you say that people don't speak about losing money...... Btw thanks for the article.
I actually enjoyed this video man as you made some pretty legit statemans. Will follow your work without a doubt.
Can't agree more on that.
The cryptospace looks like a shopping spree! @steemitzimbabwe @tinashe
Almost ironic that Bitcoin Cash is the biggest looser of the past 24 hours with -27%
Was thinking the same when i looked at it but can't decide atm what tu buy xD
Discounts, discounts everywhere ...
Love this chart
It has a way of calming the crypto soul ;)
como es no entendi
Dice que hay muchas gangas ahorita
Thanks for the mention. Mucho appreciated.
You continue to hit it out of the park with your creative and interesting content. You are demonstrating the long term mind set necessary for this idea and technology to take hold and win!
I think people have a tendency to value “something” relatively based on how best it performed the previous time. It clearly misses fundamentals. Bitcoin at 20k usd was pure speculative price. Now, since more and more people are investing in bitcoin and also institutions are planning to trade futures (BAKKT), the price is adjusting to fundamentals and not pure speculation. The volatility will dry down for good which in turn get more people to invest in bitcoins. I always believed that bitcoin at current halving period doesn’t justify the current price. I think the drop is justified and more matured price action can be seen in the near future.
That's what i think too, it's better to have a low price based on fundamentals compared to high price based on speculation.
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The markt need some time to recover, I think the Bitcoin will rise again.
Sure it will.
Happening the same as in 2014. In 2021 it will cost up to 100k...
Hey @maikelblogo, I would disagree with you. John Mcaffe said it will cost by 500 k., and he is a visionary, as per 2017 he said it will be by 12000, it turned out he miscalculated, so lets see.Hodl+ invest, thats what I do!
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not the time to be greedy yet, has more downside.. we could be looking at BTC at 1000
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Do not sell your bags, you may lose too much, HODL whatever it takes.
Many people's misery will become other's opportunity.
Im rekt :(
una caída de un 30% hablando.
..and...it s cyber week!!!...btc for less!!...or may people needed cash for shopping.........
well done..people forget that btc started at a price below 10dollars....up..follow...
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Very painful
No worries @leooptimux, it is just temporary, check out pls. history of cryptos for the last 7-8 years or jusy look up here, lot of explanatory info
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Thanks bro... That sound relieving and encouraging.
It just like flat currency foreign exchange trading there is up an down. If you trade you think you smart than you may loose your capital. Luck is the primary factor and your knowledge is secondary. Cool the mind if you r loosing and heat up your hop to be better. See you in your another post i can not vote you due to new one in this business if I had voting power,the post is has worth of my vote. Bye and with you best.
The price is pretty stable. The market doesn't know what to do. I actually predict a downturn and sold 3/4 of my assets after taking some heavy losses from ethereum mostly. The price bounced back basically to what I sold at overnight as people are excited to buy at these prices but still hasn't risen above yesterday's price. I still live in the US so taking a loss isn't a big deal. I'm going to write it off even though it's only a few thousand. The upside is no longer 1,000:1. It's 4:1 at best either way so the market is just more boring now or else you have to invest a lot more which is what bitcoin is looking for now: some big investors. Short sellers are going to get in and out if they're smart. The price could easily spike upward, but the trend is still down. All coins are down. Nothing is really doing well right now so people are not buying ethereum especially for ICOs. The SECs ruling on blockchain securities might have done a lot more harm to ethereum than I initially thought it would.
Here's the BBC on Gramatik who raised money with an ICO that was later declared an illegal security by the SEC. https://www.bbc.com/news/42337546 I can't find articles about what happened later on. Not sure what he was able to keep, but I don't think he got in too much trouble either because it was before the ruling. It's just a lot harder to do this now publicly now that the SEC ruling has come down.
Hope very soon recover this market. Thanks for this article.
THE MARKET WILL SURELY RECOVER SOON
Valuation on currency often fluctuates....
Chill steemians, its gonna come up sooner than expected.
Excellent, how can I have more information about it?
This is not the end... just a new begin... the phoenix always fly to high sky.
nyc friend u made a wonderful blog . please upvote me also.
https://steemit.com/spanish/@maikelyn/un-gran-milagro-de-dios-a-great-miracle-of-god
I think it's very risky to say that the cryptocurrency "They're dead"
Like any other market value it has its ups and downs. regards
There are thousands of economists trying to predict the economy and fiat markets and most get it wrong while they have a huge amount of historic data. In crypto there is no historic data making it even harder to predict anything.
It's a gamble, it can go up or maybe we look back in 10 years to crypto and see it as the thing that gave us blockchain technology but wasn't meant to be a currency.
Let's see how it goes. My wild guess is that we have not seen the bottom yet. Still we haven't seen the sky yet! So HODL is my advice.
i liked your post, i am still hopefull and now time is to understand , now time is to dream come true, not hurry but will be in need patients
Nice article. Bitcoin is probably down due to Politics. Other Coins Launching, Gaining. Supply & Demand.
Crypto is here to stay. Choose wisely.
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I like the podcast good job on it!
Powerful analysis. Thanks for sharing :)
excelente post.
Thanks for the shout-out.
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