Technical Analysis

I had a lull in August -- it was a month before NFL season, I wasn't playing MLB DFS anymore, and I had no projects I was working on, so I decided to learn how to trade. I didn't intend on becoming a round the clock crypto trader, but anytime I want to buy or sell a coin, knowing how to trade would come in handy.

I used to think Technical Analysis was pure nonsense. There didn't seem to be anybody who spent time validating chart signals and their observed expectations over time, and I didn't believe that candle analysis or graph shapes had anything to do with the future price. I talked with a few friends who were more experienced traders, and I was recommended a book: Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein.

The book was extremely helpful -- it cut through the noise and focused in on things that really mattered and were backed up by logic. For instance, support and resistance lines: these are important because they indicate areas where people in the market may have previously bought or sold and are a level where someone will begin profiting on a long time hold.

I worked through the book, purchased a year long tradingview subscription, started trading alt coins, and despite a period of time where Bitcoin was booming and alts were getting crushed comparatively, I was overall profiting with my trades. I was losing a small amount on the majority of my trades, but due to disciplined stops and much bigger wins on my good picks, I was able to profit.

Some of my good choices:
-buying LTC at .0116BTC and selling between .016BTC and .0185BTC
-buying PAY at 63k and selling between 96k and 130k satoshis
-picking up ARK at 33k satoshis and selling around 40k (I missed out on the biggest gains though)
-buying OMG at 170k and selling over 200k satoshis.
-buying OMG again at 240k and selling at 270k satoshis.
-buying CVC at 130k and selling at 160k satoshis.
-bought more ETH at .077 and sold what I bought back at .082
-sold 20% of my BTC at $4k and rebought at $3500/$3250/$3000

My bad choices all lost about 10%: QTUM, NEO, XEL, XZC, UBQ, BAT, GAME, ZEC, GNT, and a couple others.

It was really nice having a disciplined system that took emotion out of the equation so that I never second guessed my moves.

When NFL was starting up, I decided to stop from trading, hold a few longer term bags, and concentrate on my main job.

The coins I decided to hold and percentages at the time:

BTC (60%)
ETH (22% of portfolio)
BCH (8%)
XMR (3% of portfolio)
DASH (1%)
STEEM (1%)
OMG (1%)

And I have tokens from ICOs that aren't selling yet such as tezos.

I also started spending more time reading about pre-sales and pre-ICO tokens with large bonuses that I could buy. These required a different skillset: since you are buying into a team/idea/future valuation, it's more about fundamentals/sentiment than technical analysis. I bought some SALT over the counter, and am an early investor in Bitclaves.

Basically, I stopped doing technical analysis on my existing tokens and let the chips fall where they may. And let me tell you, they did fall.

ETH

I sold some there, but then sat on my bag as it fell through multiple supports and eventually ended up below a longtime support of .066.

XMR

Instead of selling at a stop loss of .025BTC, I didn't pay attention, held on, and watched it lose 35% of it's value.

DASH

I bought some at the arrow at .085, there was a very quick pump up to .1, but it dropped just as quickly. Instead of selling once it fell below support at .083, I held on and watched it lose 35% of it's value.

OMG

I sat on the sidelines as OMG fell through 3 support levels. I should have sold at 260k satoshis, instead, it's down about 40% since then.

BTC is by my largest holding, and over 50%, so I'm still very happy about the price gains, but derelict is not an excuse.

It's time to start analyzing TA again on my coins, stay up to speed on them, and to have stop losses for everything I don't have in a long term wallet.

I'll probably post a couple analyses a week on my holdings and any adjustments I make to force myself to keep looking at things and not neglect my portfolio again.

My name is Ryan Daut and I am a professional gambler. My interests include dogs, poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.