I don't believe seasonal variations have much impact on this. Aside from the fact that it is a ranking system and most websites are affected by the same seasons (with a population primarily in the Northern hemisphere), the changes in traffic are many orders of magnitude which is way beyond the typical impact of seasonality.
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There are many different metrics people are using to look for indicators. I applaud you for looking at something different to most.
I think looking at just one will not give a best indicator. In the end, there are always unforeseen events that historical charts can never account for.
So in the end, time will tell.
Yes I agree, no indicator should be looked at without a broader perspective in mind.