I've been bearish (and hard) on STEEM for ages, but I'm seeing a few early bullish signals I can't ignore.
Some of the coverage of STEEM price I've published in the past few months:
- STEEM price nearing 0.15 USD
- It has NEVER been this cheap to buy STEEM with Bitcoin!
- Rising crypto waters aren't floating the Steem boat!
- Price approaches December low and many ask "Is STEEM Dead?"
- STEEM has now lost 99% of its value since opening day!
- Steem is #80 and falling... excellent buying opportunity?!
On the first day of the year when you don't feel chilly, when you smell flowers on the breeze, and see a honeybee... you know spring is coming. No calendar needed.
For me, it's like that sometimes with markets I'm watching. Of course, the weather might turn chilly again for a bit, but most years, I know exactly when it's time to germinate my seeds.
Here are a few faint signals I've been picking up on lately, which might indicate STEEM's price recovery is imminent:
The chart
Past history is sometimes an indicator of future performance. The chart may give hints about sentiment (demand) and market factors (supply) we can use to make an educated guess.
The formation over the past few weeks is what I call 'bottomy' (not an official term). It's not a classic bottom signal like an inverted head&shoulders, but it's no longer making lower lows. Essentially, it has turned sideways, and over the past few days has a slightly promising uptrend. It's not much, but it's definitely not as dismal as it has looked over the past 18 months!!
"NewSteem"
HF21 happened a week ago, sending shocks through the Steem economy. Projects, businesses, and individuals alike are frantically changing their strategy on this blockchain. That makes it a wildcard. Sure, it means less money for content-creators, and more money for investors, but the free downvotes also will play a part in how things shake out. This could certainly be a turning point, financially, and if investors like what they see there will be a price recovery. It's an "if", but worth mentioning on this list.
Sentiment
I've been bearish (and horrified) of the STEEM price for a long time. Lately, it feels like sentiment has fallen further. It feels like when Bitcoin fell from 20k to 3200, and EVERYBODY was saying it would keep falling to 2000. That's when I knew we'd hit that bottom! It's starting to feel that way, now. There are eternal bulls in every market, but right now almost everybody else who could possibly be bearish on STEEM, has become so. It's akin to that last winter storm before things start to thaw - it's darkest just before the dawn. The bear bandwagon has become full, and it feels crowded. Experienced market watchers recognize these as potential market bottom signals.
If you're reading this and disagree with it, that actually proves my point about sentiment. This isn't a popular opinion right now, which could very well be why it's correct.
If the Steem blockchain (and currency) is a failed project, which is a very real possibility that many eternal optimists ignore, there's likely no price recovery coming, other than dead cat bounces. But if Steem is going to be one of the survivors of this crypto winter, a strong price recovery is due, and the bottom may already be in.
Shenanigans
This may be a little conspiratorial for some, but I've long wondered if the hard fork would be a price turning point. I believe stock prices (and currency prices) can be manipulated by whales/groups buying and selling at certain times or in certain patterns. Somebody could profit greatly this way. There's means and motive. That doesn't mean it happened, it only means it could have happened. Think about it in terms of corporate takeovers. A company's value may be driven downward through stock selling or negative news (aka "FUD"), sometimes via backdoor deals, to ensure an attractive price for the takeover. There are pros and cons to everything. Low price is for some a nightmare, and for others a blessing. Somebody profits when somebody loses, and vice versa.
Well, the 'takeover' is complete. "NewSteem" is here, with different financial rules, and a shakeup of some of the power players. In this "what if" scenario, whoever was driving down the price over the past several months would likely lay off their efforts now, allowing what could be a healthy price recovery.
Bitcoin
What happens with Bitcoin drives the rest of the market. It's 70% of the entire crypto world, after all. And Bitcoin has been taking a bit of a break since the move up to 14k, bringing the other cryptos down with it.
But when the bull run resumes, and I think it's going to very soon, STEEM will get pulled up with it (at least to some degree). As I mentioned above, the chart looks bottomy here. If we get any upturn now, investors will see the bottom as in.
Conclusion
Sure, it's really dismal at the moment. It's hard to watch something drop consistently for years, losing 99% of its value, and remain optimistic. But you've felt that way before, and it hasn't always been right. We often feel that way when it feels there's no end to the trend in sight, that it will go forever, that we're in a new paradigm. Both tops and bottoms can be that way, emotion-driven. Our emotions aren't the best way to analyze charts, though. If we observe the cues, faint as they may be, we can hear spring coming just around the corner.
DRutter
Nice and well organized thoughts in your writing. You deserve an upvote.
I've been working on organizing my thoughts better, so thank you for the feedback!
곰돌이가 @jaydih님의 소중한 댓글에 시세변동을 감안하여 $0.012을 보팅해서 $0.028을 지켜드리고 가요. 곰돌이가 지금까지 총 6481번 $73.419을 보팅해서 $83.990을 구했습니다. @gomdory 곰도뤼~
I think it's actually HF21 that drove it this low in the first place. The uncertainty of drastically changing our economy likely scared a lot of people out for the short term.
I'd say HF 21/22 has largely been successful so far, and if it continues to be so, along with all the other developments, this very well could be the bottom.
Also our all time low was around 8 cents... and crypto seems to be on these doubling patterns. 16 cents could very well be the absolute bottom for Steem.
Yeah, I too don't see us going back to that 8 cent low. Too many people looking at it, and assuming we're going there.
You're right that many people bailed when they heard the rumours of HF21. I imagine that insiders with massive premined pools are the larger market force though.
A drop to ATL wouldn't shock me, especially with large accounts that refuse to adjust and instead power down.
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If those large (hated) accounts refuse to adjust, and power down, that will make this place so much more attractive to everybody, especially investors!
If it did, I'd sell some BTC and buy some more steem
Bye bye to those who don't want to be here and participate :D
I guess we'll have to wait and see what prices do. Right now most all of the major exchanges have transfers in and out Froze. Been trying to get mine off of Binance since before the HF. Sure would be nice to see some upward movement.
How come they're freezing transfers in and out of STEEM? That doesn't sound promising.
I wish I knew. But also not surprised. After HF20 you couldn't even post for a week. LOL. So far they are still suspended.
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👍
~Smartsteem Curation Team