You're naive to think that 16B XLM will be given away.
I've seen giveaways that pay off way better than this, with less than 250,000 BTC signed up. That's less than 2% of all BTC.
Why do you think this will be much different?
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There will be lots of unclaimed lumens, but those are going to "be allocated to the Stellar operational fund and the Build Challenge." Stellar could easily sell those coins to bolster its balance sheet. I think with recent moves in crypto, more people are going to be paying attention to this giveaway.