I think you are correct. Many in the crypto space will fail to inovate and will fall away. Winners will be chosen by the market. I see one or two currencies and one or two dApp platforms taking the lead. Once there is a proper dApp ecosystem there will be many dApp successes as well.
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True there are a lot of new small cryptocurrencies that are going to struggle, Many of them came up but the tougher the market, the incapable ones are going to be weeded out.