This May Seem Like an Odd Post for Those of You That are New.
The world of Crypto Currency and Bitcoin has been on a tear since this time last year. The space has accelerated to the point of euphoria in my opinion. I have to say that I am actually feeling a little unsettled at the moment. So with little hesitation I have decided to sell 50% of my Crypto Currencies and put them into USD.
For those that would call me a fool, please remember I have been around since 2014. The world of crypto currency has changed our life and I look forward to big things ahead. At this moment I just feel we are nearing the top. When I start seeing Facebook posts like the one below I get PTSD flashbacks of the real estate crash of 2007-2008 when everyone was buying real estate with zero money down and selling it a month later for 30% profits.
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Is it Different This Time?
Sure, this could be the result of a shift in the world and a global awakening. I love that thought but history tells us that every market repeats itself. If you did not watch this video about Elliot Waves, please take the time and watch it.
We could very well be heading to $5000 or more for Bitcoin before this market cools down but for my household we are going to take profits off the table before the mad dash to the exit.
I am not telling you to do the same. I am just letting my peers know that I think we are getting a little over heated. Don't be the last person hodling the bag and then blaming Crypto Currency for your losses.
Bitcoin and Crypto Currency are resilient and the cycle will continue. Just remember that every market goes through cycles and the mania phase is kicking in for the 3rd or 4th time.
Why Not Sell Everything?
I am 100% playing with house money now. All of my original investments were taken out of the market over a year ago. If this continues to go up it is mana from heaven. If not, so be it. I will be on the other side of the peak waiting to buy Bitcoin and quality Crypto Currencies when they go on sale just like the folks who were in cash bought homes for pennies on the dollar when the real estate market crashed.
If I am wrong I win. If I am right I win. This is a great position to be in. Happy trading!
Wise guy.
Honestly, cashing in some right now,
and investing in silver might be the best move ever!
Just my opinion tho..
That is a great idea @crawfish37! I am a silver bug.
I second this!! ag is so undervalued!!
What do you think of Coinapult's locking feature? It's an easy way to switch between Bitcoin, Dash, major fiat currencies and gold & silver.
I love Coinapult, they are my favorite hot exchange.
That's exactly what I plan to do, too @crawfish37. At this moment in time, it would seem prudent to hold something "physical", that still has value... at least "divvy it up" anyway.
Indeed... and in crypto back by gold
you can never go wrong with taking profits, especially when you are already on house money!!
What an amazing ride it has been. In ten years I shutter just thinking about what my BTC wallet might look like. We are so early.
I'm converting to USDt little by little and hates it when seeing the coins soaring.
nice move...
I share your opinion with the dollar may be little or almost nothing, but we must recognize that it is a solid investment, not for nothing operates in almost all the countries of the world, in Argentina our official money is the peso, however the whole economy Is governed around the dollar, all Argentines who have saving power invest in dollars, here the dollar is quoted $ 16.20 many thanks for sharing your experiencai dear friend @hilarski
Steem Dollars work as well ; ). I think there will be a mad dash to them if there is a market correction.
The esteem dollar in Bittrex today is quoting u $ s 2, I think it can reach 5u $ s in the short term
You win either way in different perspectives. As you said, you're in a good position. Congrats
This is not advice but here is my uneducated opinion. It seems like btc segwit adoption might be the catalyst that hits the alts . Sounds like that is September. If is like other markets I expect breadth to deteriorate with only the top currencies doing well just before the fall and bitcoin the last man standing. Many of these alt traders will go back into bitcoin causing a blow off top that takes years to regain. Now is that at 2500 5000 10000 it's hard to guess. But if market stays the same and bitcoin dominance goes to 67 percent that's $3450 and if the market grow say 20 per net more that's $4150. So that's seems like a decent range. If is a real giant bubble maybe we get 50 percent more in which gets us around $5,000.
That is reasonable to me. The see saw battle between alts and BTC will continue.
Good to know I'm not alone... I set a "ceiling" on how much I wanted to have in the market (in USD) and started pulling out anything above that since about May 10th.
I think we still have many miles to go, and as the mainstream gets more and more aware of this "asset class" there will be more inflows for quite a while. The somewhat sobering sense of perspective I got the other day is that if we took the total market cap of all cryptos that still isn't large enough to make the top-100 list of the largest companies in the world... this remains a virtual flyspeck in a greater investing context...
You are totally right, we are far from a real world bubble. We are just getting frothy in Crypto.
Exactly. I'm slowly beginning to sell off BTC and I don't even care anymore if it keeps rising. I'm making good profits as it is. Greed is good. But only to a point ;)
Perfect time
I would consider doing the same but recently am in loss side. i made wrong move with XRP
Wish you the best @hilarski
XRP? Sorry to hear that I warned everyone about that the day before it crashed as well.
Its OK it will rise again. the best lesson i toke from crypto space is to wait :)
Cheers my friend you make a mature wise call at the right time
I agree. Profit is only profit if you can spend it. Whether is dollars, Euro, gold, silver or shekels moving from one asset to another is not without risks but at some point you have to lock in some profit. If it keeps heading to the moon it might leave a bitter taste but not as much as the stress when the mood turns down.
Solid advice. Thank you for sharing your experience with others.
that's a professional decision, nothing else. good work!
Surely there will be a correction at some point so all good taking some out.
And a great time to get back in / add to your position.
Congratulations @hilarski!
Your post was mentioned in my hit parade in the following category:
Funny, I was telling a friend about steemit today and he said its a waste of time. It may look good now but it crashed last year.. My response was like, well thats the point, if it does well, I win, if it crashes, it will probably get rolling again next year, and this time, I may be able to buy cheap and make a mint, or at least, i will be well educated about cryptos. We'l just have to wait and see what happens. I didn't invest real cash this time, so I lose nothing.
based on todays slide it appears you made the right call. we will see how far it slides and now the news that Kathleen Rice (d) is calling for in investigation in cryptocurrency and its like to terrorism
Phew, I am so glad I did it.
Meanwhile, don't forget that the entire world is about to get spooked by the coming shake up of all paper currencies. Already an inevitable case. Looks like uncharted land of volatility right ahead.
Nothing wrong with that. Leave some in longterm. Go have a nice vacation. Smart money is walking out of this market. Taking 50% profits here is very smart.
Thanks for the reassurance. If I posted this in a crypto currency group I might get banned.
I did get banned in the FB Crypto Collectors Club last week just for warning people about bubbles and XRP lack of fundamentals. Thanks to Steemit we can speak our mind. Will see what happens. I have made more in Crypto than anything else before. I still have skin in this game but I am walking out slowly. Ethereum was the big one for me since I was buying for over a year. Best of luck to you!
Great post. Thanks for sharing. It is always good to be playing with house money. Cheers to being in such a great position. I agree, I think the pumps are getting ahead of themselves and some will end up losing in the short term. But in the long term there is still a lot to be made with these crypto-currencies!
It pays to be prudent. I've done the same, but not 50%. I sold some ETH when it topped $150, and now I'm kicking myself for not waiting a little longer. Such is life.
I am so pleased with ETC's action! But not taking profits now... there is too much momentum.
I believe that its easy to see in hindsight that it could have made more money but equally it was the best decision at the time. I spent 11 bitcoins I had around 2012 and had no idea they would be worth this much, around $28,270 now. Overall I gained that from mining on old laptops near the start and didn't think much of it.
I would be smiling all the way to my Wirex card with the recent ETH profits. ; )
Oh, I got my smiles, too.
You are not fool :)
Always good to diversify, taking some profits off the table is usually a wise move, no gains or losses until you actually sell something. My suggestion to anyone investing in Bitcoin has been the same since 2015, only invest what you are willing to lose and then just wait.
nice...rs and upvote for you....
Sobering piece @hilarski. Got me running a number of my own scenarios for taking some profits off of the table. I have the same question as you: Is it different this time? Acceptance of bitcoin by economies like Japan and Australia, increasing geopolitical destabilization. Man o day, sure is hard to know!
Yeah that's a fair point from a traders point of view. I can see it coming down soon too but it's crazy just now so who knows?
I would always keep buying crypto with any spare money that I have because I believe in it, just like we all do.
To think that it still isn't really mainstream yet and this is what the price is just now is fascinating.
That is a wise move. Most crypto coins are in the "Hype" phase. What I do with some profits apart from cashing out? I invest in ICOs. I take some satoshis and invest in quiet coins as well. It is wise to think ahead when taking wins while time permits.
I used to do ICO's but haven't since late last year. This Tezo one interests me but like the DAO it could get too big too fast. I also like to take profits and buy the smaller tokens since that is where it is possible to make the biggest gains. I did wonderful with PIVX and Digibyte recently.
I haven't heard of Tezo yet, but I will look at it now. I only managed to do some bits with PIVX, but it was too big a bubble for me then.
For me, there's no feeling than seeing a coin grow whilst being invested in it
LOL, turning $10 into $100,000! Some people never leave their forte!!
As for your decision, it's a wise one. Instead of blindly investing, we should keep taking out our seed money. Bad things can happen anytime......
lol, within a day is too much though
Ya, LOL!
They sure can, for example the BItfinex heist, the DAO heist or bad ones like Mt. Gox.
Yep. We've now got major banks (fake money) moving into crypto, and we know those banks want to buy their way with things like pushing segwit and Ethereum. Of course, we can't know whether or not they're manipulating the price, but remember that for them, a few billion dollars of money printed out of thin air to manipulate crypto prices is literally free, and absolutely fits their MO (central banks manipulating markets with inflation? Must be a day that ends with Y...). It's definitely worth being suspicious, and definitely watch out for punishments if things don't go well for segwit or Ethereum, rewards if they do (which might be what we're looking at now).
Congratulations. You're already playing with "house money" so you can be fearless. (fearless but not stupid)
I didn't agree with (your) shorting this market, so I think you got what you deserved. Why, because that's just a game playing against your fellow players. True it will be done anyway and it may help to keep prices on an even keel.
I'd say you're in the "Cat-Bird Seat," you're still in, in a big way!
Yes, that was a stupid move on my part and I paid for it but if I would have waited until $2200 and did the same trade I would have been in the money in a huge way. I just jumped the gun 8 hours too soon.
"Euphoria," exactly. If you feel like it perhaps you can show us how to convert Steem and other crypto into USD? Simple step by step like I'm a toddler, I mean a minnow. :-)
For sure, I can do that. It is a good blog post.
Wonderful. I am sure many of us would appreciate it! :-)
Eh.. I'm kicking myself for getting out of Bitcoin a while back. I still have some left but not much. There remain other opportunities and its clear now that crypto is here to stay. HOWEVER! These and the federal reserve notes are all still FIAT. 5000+ years of history says failing empires always go back to 2 currencies over and over. Play and have fun, make money if you can but only GOLD AND SILVER are actual money.
Don't worry the price won't go down till I buy some. I could make a lot of money selling the times I sell or buy. People would make tons doing the opposite of me.
haaha good post ;)
@hilarski, I really enjoyed this post and have publish similar ones, though I suppose that I left out the crash that precedes the majority of mine.
Although I would argue that 50% is a lot to dump all at once, I wish you the best of luck. Btw, check out silver.
-Followed!
if you really need it and have some left then by all means go for it. and good luck also a hint we do take donations, hint hint
I totally agree. The capitalization of the cryptocoins has grown so much so fast, this is insane. This grow cannot be sustained. Of course the market could continue to grow, the markets could be irrational for long time. But at the end, the correction comes.
@hilarski Brother, thank you for sharing your valuable insights and experience. I always pay attention to those like you who share honestly and openly here.
We've been feeling strongly to sell some BTC since this recent run, we just can't get over the looming fear of petro-dollar collapse. What with the recent geo-political antics of the orange one et al.
We will most likely buy SBD, please excuse if I'm over reaching though I wonder if you too considered this or have any thoughts to share? Thank you for any response.
Much respect to you and your decision either ways, we always love you posts and information. Like you said, for you it's a win win.
Wholeness.
I Love SBD because they are like a life raft. They will still go down in a crash but at least they will still keep you afloat.
Great analogy @hilarski, thanks man! Play safe :)
Thanks for this post, I was thinking about making an investment in bytecoin recently but never really felt good about it. Feeling better about mining hardware but still, I'm seeing the balloon too and hope that there isn't a cliff somewhere soon.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-events/
this is quite the summer though... dont be too sure it will happen so quickly. the dip i mean
As much as I love crypto and believe in it, this is exactly why I still keep at least half of my savings in fiat. I don't think we're near the point where the "bubble" will burst, but what do I know? What does anybody know for certain?
Small goal might have been achieved (some fiat money earned). But it's still fiat money in old debt-slave system. So it's actually retreat. True victory is when we don't need to go back to fiat. However I'm not judging your decision, maybe we will have to go through one or two more phases before we get there. Anyway, enjoy your earnings! But if you think it's win situation, then you still live in an illusion.
It's a win because I am debt free. Do I like going back to USD? Nope, but the local car dealer doesn't take BTC yet.
Perfect opportunity to introduce him some crypto service like Bitpay and help him to save some credit card fees and avoid charge-back risk. And you will save income tax. That I call win situation - moving Bitcoin from speculative asset to utility and to save some money during that process on both sides. Well, and no-one is debt free, there is 199 trillion world debt created, that makes about 30k USD per head (yours included) :).
that's true, if BTC may be widely adopted, it will skyrocket to maybe 10.000, 50.000, or 500.000 USD, or it's just a bubble . But in my opinion, the market cap will be much higher in the future, just take steemit, millions of steem worth of USD may be bought into BTC to "cashout" and that's just steem, imagine what happens if there were hundreds of platforms and tokens like steemit/steem!
It is always good to take a little profit markets can be volatile.
Many have made the point however that Bitcion to the crypto bubble burst is like Google and Amazon to the dotcom crash.
What do you think of such an analysis?
It could be Josh, but it never hurts to be cautious.
Agreed. Though I still feel safer putting Btc into something of more value than fiat. Like gold or silver. By fundamentals the dollar should have crashed long ago and I feel rather uneasy carrying large amounts in fiat.
My biggest disappointment has been my silver. I have a pretty nice stack.
im on the same path like you sir ! wise movement
I'm a huge supporter of diversification. In today's regulated environment, a change in legislative attitude could have a significant impact on prices. I suggest that everyone takes a piece of their profits and invest in other industries.
Great article, sober logic, love it Randy! You're an experienced crypto investor. Thank you @hilarski
Thank you Jan!!
Great for you! Everyone smart has their own strategy of trading and not just reacting to the market. Nothing wrong with cashing out when you feel the time is right!
Looking at how absolutely mental the market is now.. Theres bound to be a correction. Bear always comes after the bull. Better make a run before the sale begins!
I think this is different. There really isn't any bank/wall street participation in the markets. No derivatives, credit default swaps, or 100 percent financing. By the same token if you have profits take em!
You may be right. I just watch the cycles and Bitcoin has done this multiple times.
I like your way of investing @hilarsky. Thanks for sharing :)
dude, ive been driving myself nuts all day at work thinking about this. i sense a crash coming from a bunch of people who doubled their money this month, doing this.
Prudent move @bemky. If you are in the money you are good to go.