Both realistic scenarios, IMO.
I'm leaning more towards the bearish count, but I can't really justify that sentiment for any reason other than my suspicion that the players with deep pockets (institutional money?) want to buy still cheaper before something like a physically-backed ETF really shakes up (and wakes up) this market.
It appears to me that the crypto market is neutral, to slightly bearish at the moment, so it seems plausible that a surprise is about to happen for the general market players. Whether that surprise comes as a sneaky change of trend (catching most of the market with their pants down) or another wave of selling (establishing new lows), while I lean on the latter, I'm not confident enough to place a bet on either.
I agree...big money wants to buy a cheap bitcoin before the floodgates open. That said, retail investors are getting smart. Shorts are stacked to near all time highs. I can see market makers possibly driving price up to liquidate shorts...which may actually trigger a bull run. We'll see. Like you, I'm not entering any large positions until there's more clarity. Small scalps here and there, but that's it.