I don't think it will take 20 years. That's too long of a timespan and the world at it current state is too fragile. I think we need a few (maybe just one) major catalyst event in the financial sector to draw people into decentralized financial solutions regardless the ease of use. If people see the value higher than the ease of use then it won't be a problem. I do agree that some level of centralization is good at least right now to make things moving but in 5-10 years it might change.
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I would tend to agree with you. With the current level of economic manipulation in the stock and bond markets, and extreme asset inflation overall due to QE (or should I say debt-monetization), it's my feeling that we are on the precipice of another great financial markets calamity. Add to this, growing income inequality in the United States, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty (vis a vis proxy wars in Syria) and you've got a bubbling little pot of shit stew that, should it boil over, might be just awful enough to put a bad taste in people's mouth and induce a shift in tastes towards alternative decentralized systems.