The Crypto Industry seems to be strengthening, yet external factors are moving prices down in the short term.
And that is likely good news for those wanting to enter the space.
We have a new asset class that is just getting it's sea legs under it, but we have negative external headlines coming from all sorts of directions that mostly don't affect the underlying fundamentals of the industry.
That is likely creating a very good buying opportunity.
What do I mean exactly?
I mean that we have had tons of positive developments in the space over the past several months but all that is overshadowed by the lack of clear regulations, selling by the Mt. Gox trustee, as well as a few other external events.
Just off the top of my head, we have had new exchanges/apps coming out every couple of weeks that offer cheaper alternatives to current exchanges.
Plus many of these newer ones have proper licenses/registrations/exemptions that perhaps some of the older ones didn't have.
The purchase of Poloniex by Circle was a perfect example of this. That looks to be the first exchange that will be registered with the SEC.
We also have the Circle Invest app and the Robinhood App, as well as a couple others that hope to revolutionize the crypto mobile trading industry while offering fee-free trading.
We are also getting more and better use cases for cryptocurrencies.
Yes Bitcoin was dropped from a couple of its long time retail supporters, but that was only because the transaction fees were unsustainably high. Fees are now down roughly 97% from those highs and retailers are starting to pick it back up as a payment method.
Also...
More crypto hedge funds are popping up every week wanting exposure to the space.
More and more derivatives products are being created every couple of weeks as well, with the newest ones being created in Europe.
We also are getting more and more traditional investment products, related to cryptocurrencies, being offered by Grayscale Investments, similar to the extremely popular GBTC.
We are also slowly but surely getting more clarity on tax issues and regulatory guidance.
Also, every couple of days when I google Bitcoin, I see updates about new merchants accepting bitcoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, or litecoin as a form of payment.
Use cases truly are increasing.
There is even a "crypto-back" credit card in the works where customers will receive 1% back of their purchases made with the card in the form of bitcoin or ether.
New college classes are being formed every semester focusing on cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and writing code, so our youth is being educated.
Bitcoin etc, have their very own segment on the CNBC Youtube page. Plus Bitcoin is mentioned every single day, usually multiple times per day on their extremely popular Fast Money show.
The underlying technology/potential is also slowly getting better.
Segwit is already being used at several exchanges, and the the Lightning Network is slowly being implemented and tested as well.
I am sure I am leaving many things out, but overall it seems things are progressing nicely, yet prices are off about 70% from their highs, which to me is the perfect set up to be buying into.
Pay attention to the underlying growth that is happening, while the price of the currency is mostly trending downwards.
At some point the strengthening fundamentals will start to drive prices more so than the negative headline of the day.
Stay informed my friends.
*Images courtesy of Pexels.com
Follow me: @jrcornel
That’s exactly want we need , companies and everyone else to accept bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies
Great summation! Thanks for the info.
How is Robinhood treating you? :)
Just bought my first BTC! So simple I couldn’t believe it. Great App! 👍👍👍
3 thumbs up
Robinhood app also for apple products?
good point! I guess the market just need sometime to digest the crazy bull last year...
It’s true that the price movement has nothing to do with the strengthening fundamentals. It’s almost counterintuitive and is dangerous to your financial health if you have a short term outlook. I do see this as a buying opportunity. I’ll take a few more months of downward action before we get some nice gains. Thanks for the post!
The future is so bright. Wake me up when the darkness ends. I always thought the need to wait until 2020 to realize my crypto dreams. The hope of earlier success has been squashed by this bear market.
End the FUD.
I agree with the others. People keep refreshing their charts and are not reading the news. The lightning network is a huge boost for bitcoin. The mt gox trustee may have been subsided. Yes HF and Goldman support. People are listening to the media too much. Over time the volatility will subside and the price will creep back up. They took leverage (credit cards) out of crypto so that accelerated the down swing. Stay patient everyone.
I agree we have been having loads of good technical news but at present, most people don’t care about technology or the real world problems crypto can solve, they only care about the price. That’s why there are well over a thousand coins, the vast majority without any kind of use case etc. There needs to be a huge consolidation to make crypto viable and very low prices may help that.
Don’t get me wrong, I want high prices as much as anyone who holds crypto but at present there is still far too much speculation and not enough focus on the tech!
Yes I agree, hopefully prices don't have to go much lower before that starts happening.
I think the G-20 meeting starting 19. this month. Will lift the fog. For the big money to flod back in too the CC market. Mostly speculation. It's the internet bobble times X. Mass coindeaths will happen. But the survivors may make you A lot whelthier 😊
I liken the current situation to a wildfire that clears away all of the unhealthy underbrush, but leaves the steady forest in a state to thrive. In other words, the BS crypto projects are being wiped out and market share is being consolidated into the legitimate use cases (Bitcoin being the most legit by a mile, as a store of value).
Agreed, a good time to buy is on the horizon. I am expecting further weakness until the prices approach those of the miner's break-even point ($4-5k Bitcoin).
Should we reach a price point that is on par with production (mining) and the regulatory green-light is given, get your space gear ready! Institutional money will begin accumulating positions, prices will appreciate, and then the melt up is on!
The asset class is so miniscule that even a tiny capital re-shuffle into crypto will have huge profit windfalls.
I read this morning that we are currently at break even mining prices for btc just under $8k, but I haven't verified that yet.
Break even under what conditions? Free electricity and latest mining equipment I assume? Difficulty may start to drop if prices continue to dive although equipment cost is already a sunk cost and if electricity is free then they may as well keep mining!
Good questions. This is from the news release today:
"There are some bullish signs emerging. Bitcoin currently trades at the break-even cost of mining, currently at $8,038, based on a model by Fundstrat’s data scientists Sam Doctor and Ken Xuan. The digital currency bottomed in 2015 when it was at the same multiple relative to mining costs as it is today, and peaked in 2013 at 21 times its mining costs."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-sees-more-pain-ahead-before-price-recovery
Agreed @grizgal it is a relatively dynamic/ambiguous metric (mining break-even, that is), but I'd read an estimate that tried to come up with a global average mining price, rather than purely based on US electrical prices. The estimate was in the $4-5k range. Cannot recall the link to provide here, but it seems to coincide with the link @jrcornel provided above citing sub $6k lows in store.
In this entirely nascent, subjective market I will stick to sub $5k bottoms, purely from a psychological standpoint.
Great points but short term I am not nearly as optimistic as you I am afraid. You talk ed a lot about the micro issues, but it is the macro issues that are causing all of the commotion. 1. The way most ICO launched is probably illegal. 2. There is no self-regulation within the crypto community. This will cause authorities to be heavy handed on regulation. 3. There is still way too much price manipulation going on. You will see this not being the case when crypto start moving independently of each other over time. 4. There still is no set of standards for how to conduct business in this space. It is a literal free fro all. Rules change at will and no one is accountable. Read the Fla. indictment for Bitconnect. The authorities do not even have the real names of the perpetrators and the entire crypto community is silent about the entire fiasco even as it is being repeated as I write this. These are all macro issues that will continue to cause fear and volatility over the next 2+ years.
The biggest issues is the coin/token markets. No one anticipated them. They were handled poorly led by promoters who never cared about the industry only making quick money. These guys are masters at raising money fast but then run away and ae on to the nest one. they make it bad for everyone.
Also with the prices jumping around so radically many of these companies will have the financing to conduct their businesses. They are using token sales to do that now but what happens when things stabilize or stay down for a long while? Where will they get additional capital? The traditional funders are staying on the sidelines because they want control.
Think about Steemit for example. If there were 10M active people on this platform the content management costs would be staggering. Facebook pays billions each year just for managing content (storing and delivering I mean). Steemit would be pressed all the time and if the token priced dipped, they would need outside funding and it would also cause lots of rule changes around here. Like every other business crypto need to get its house in order.
Finally I respectfully disagree about use cases. Use cases require scale. No one has tested their tech at scale that I am aware of. This stuff will break all over the place as we say happen with Bitcoin when things start really moving. The truth is the hype is way ahead of the tech right now and that is not a good sign.
I do not want to sound pessimistic, I am actually optimistic, but there are real factors that is impacting the industry and will for some time. In my humble opinion, keep your seat belt on, this is the new way of things for this industry for a while.
Thanks and sorry for the long comments.
I think that's an important nuance. The overall outlook is good, but not if you're only in it for the short term. Given that outlook, an ideal time to invest would be now-ish, after we've seen some stabilization in price (as in, at least not until the Mt. Gox trustee flow has less effect).
Just because it should stabilize eventually doesn't mean you want to buy BTC at $8k.
While I agree on most of your assessments, I think the post has a great point that most internal factors are positive and ahoukd outweigh the external factors happening at this point. Regulation, as long as it is responsible in that it does not hinder innovation, will ultimately be positive as we don’t need bad guys in a free for all. This will bring clarity to the space and open it up to more capital that is available out there. In the US, government agencies are already in place to handle this so it is just a matter of setting the guidelines. Again, it will lead to uncertainty in the short term but will be good over the long term as more internal factors like technology continue to be developed for the best use cases. Small projects will struggle but those that have a brand established will be successful as long as the community continues to support it. For example, Lightning Labs just announced they got funding for the Lightning Network beta deployment. The names of people backing this are huge (Jack Dorsey from Twitter/Square and Charlie Lee from LTC)! The tech will support adoption and growth which will lead it forward in the long term.
Gox trustee is apperantly on halt untill September, so, regarding the amount of bitcoin that he still needs to sell, in all probability, even when the markets go up, around september there will probably be another dip.
@newageinv thanks for your thoughts. I think the challenge in terms of the good outweighing the bad is that none of these crypto companies have a track record. This is the downside of an ICO. You have an idea and without any testing put up an 8 page white paper and raise tens of millions of dollars and then you are trading. This makes for huge volatility on the one hand and a need for the ICOs to constantly hype in order to keep their token prices up. None of them have even the slightest fundamentals to examine and they unlike their blockchain foundations, are quite opaque. In this environment, outside data is the only data people should count on in my opinion. Anything else is simply too risky to bet your money on.
A final point is that I said there is a possibility that many existing cryptos listed illegally. There is a chance that the SEC will either not allow these companies to conduct business in the US going forward (and other places will follow the lead of the US), or they will demand that these companies simply start everything over. How that happens, and who would it apply to? I have no idea but I can tell you that this is the conversation right now.
It is the downside of cryptos being labeled as investments. The US did this because the guidelines for raising money as an investment is well formulated and the parameters are set already. They can take existing laws an simply apply them. And if you know anything about securities laws, you know that they are very strict.
From everything I am reading and hearing regulation proposals will be rigid and firm. Remember these guys have to protect the traditional investment markets. Imagine the uproar from Apple, Microsoft and markets like the Nasdaq and Dow if Dash or Cardano gets a valuation bigger than Amazon while being listed on an unregulated market and these companies were able to raise money completely unregulated and with no real business yet. It would be chaos. I cannot see that ever happening.
As I said, if these crypto leaders are not in rooms right now talking about regulating themselves, they are not as smart as they think they are. They need to weed out the graft, set standards for how both the companies and the marketplaces /exchanges can operate, and bring these to the table. I hope they are because you can believe the other side is doing just that. Thanks.
Yes, market manipulation is huge, but bitcoin support is fantastic, every other stock on the planet wuold have been annihilated by this massive flooding and whales d&b. Community is demostrating to be strong and enthusiast.
In april I am expecting a huge uptrend correction, I mean, maybe during some months maybe we will be on the actual ranges, but when blockchain technology will go massive it will be amazing, and it will be in 2018/19.
Thank for your comments. Yes the support for Bitcoin is really strong (thank God), but part of it right now is that it is so easy to manipulate. Every time it goes up and down lots of people with no interest in the tech or future of it get paid a ton. The markets will not settle down this year or next I am afraid. Too many factors out there and government regulation and weeding out the bad apples and the crap will take through the year and into 2019. Follow the markets, learn the trends and see how you can get paid for now. But a stable business? Two years at least.
The big guys want cheap crypto to buy in ;)
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Yes, I agree. Plenty of positive news the last few weeks and the outlook is strong. The only thing that hasn't caught up is the price - should be a great buying opportunity.
Plus, from a seasonality standpoint, the Cryptocurrency markets have been down in March 6 of the last 7 years, while they have been up in April the vast majority of the time. March has been the worst month of the year seasonally, and April has been one of the best. Hopefully this follows that trend. :)
Dear @donkeypong,
I wanted to inform you of an opportunity that #promo-steem has for @sndbox and other major projects on the steem blockchain.
We are the media partners for the London Crypto Currency Show on 14th April. In return for this, we have managed to get our hands on 14,000 usd of promotional access in the form of 2 x hour long presentation seminars and one 4 x 3m exhibition stand.
Instead of using the presentation time and exhibition stand to ourselves we decided to let the major projects and notable steemians use it. So we are giving away talking spots and the opportunity exhibit at our stand for free.
This is quite a big deal since the London Crytpo Currency Show is organised by the London Investors Show, a well-established, long term investing exhibition which brings in crowds of 2,500 experienced investors through its doors at most events. This is therefore an excellent opportunity for the steem blockchain to make a strong mark at one of the premier blockchain events in the UK, and Europe basically for free.
Please see this blog for further details. I hope you are interested in either sending someone from your project to talk at one of the seminars, supporting the event or spreading the word to other major projects or notable steemians. https://steemit.com/promo-steem/@starkerz/exhibition-opportunity-call-to-steem-projects-at-london-crypto-currency-show
I look forward to hearing from you!
@starkerz
Yes, I saw that, thank you. I shared it with some others.
Thanks u.
I do not only see a financial advantage but I believe in the technick behind it
Very good your post @jrcornel
well information for all steemit user... i follow your all post... love it...
Indeed, I completely agree. We don't focus on the brighter side. The dip sure is caused by external factors while the crypto industry is strengthening. I like your positive approach, I like how your encounter things
It's much better than the alternative :)
The big one I didn't see (lest I missed it) was the move by the world's largest advertiser to ban crypto ads.
Google!
That means new projects especially will have to turn to alternate sources for promotion.
Bloggers get ready, there's going to be a lot of work coming!
Honestly if we had a massive slowdown in ICOs, that would be ok with me. There is only so much money to go around and these things are diluting the space. The truly innovative ones will still be able to attract plenty of money without advertising on Google or Facebook. This will likely slow down many of the scam-ish ones.
I think google signed its own deathwarrant. Decentralized search platforms will spring up to replace the legacy system based on the fact its third party controllers are rich dirtbags. Presearch for example, looking to be just that. Down with centralized systems, to hell with google, apple and the likes, we got presearch, sirin labs, cardano, flixxo, steemit, all reinventions of legacy platforms redesigned to revolutionize our current value systems.
Maybe so, but they can also reverse it. The change is happening, but Google is big and tied to the centralized system. They still have plenty of fight left and an incredible ability to adapt.
I dont know, i dont use anything they touch anymore. Except the odd post to the elderly family i have on fb here and there, got presearch beta for search engine, got brave browser, i will be replacing my iphone with a finney phone when they are released. Im going full blockchain. I suggest we all try to take that step in our fight against the centralized powerhouses. Word of mouth and dedicated boycotting.
Once I find a way to affiliate my WordPress website with a company that accepts crypto, I'm all over it. Thanks for the info about Presearch. Gonna check it out. :)
So true. Losing the scam ads clickbait isn't a bad thing. Neither is having to actually write lots of content. Not for bloggers. :)
I totally agree, and that's what I was alluding to. Bloggers are happy to pick up articles about flourishing projects. We earn off them through affiliation and such. Good projects can also afford to pay bloggers to keep up promotional activities. :)
Perhaps projects will need to actually produce something worthwhile with genuine use cases instead of issuing an ICO based on a couple of page white paper and walking away with millions!!
Exactly, and I'm happy to write about the ones that do offer utility.
Those days are not so far away when cryptocurrency is use in all exchange. what happend to liquid cash?
I am seeing the willingness to accept Bitcoin increase as well and there is a growing demand from private consumers to deal only in Bitcoin. In Toronto there is a man that put his house up for sale at the end of February and he says in the advertisement that he will only accept Bitcoin as a payment for the house. The house is worth roughly $450,000. He says that he is a strong Crypto supporter and that crypto is the future. If the sale happens it would be the first transaction of its kind in Canada.
Link to story: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4552846
Yes I have seen a number of private sellers do similar things. There will likely be a sharp snap-back rally off the lows when they are eventually put in, the only question is what will those lows be? $7k, $6k? $2k?
we need to show some patience here
give it some time ,all these positive steps will have positive effect on price
crypto has a bright future!
There has been much good news but there has been some bad news in the crypto space, as well. Google and Facebook have both made announcements ending crypto advertisements. Increased regulation or proposed regulation enforcement has spooked many newer investors. And scams in the space have made some people nervous to invest into the space. Do I think these should have had such a great impact on crypto? No, I don't. But, it seems that it has impacted us for the short term at least. Thanks for sharing!
Ivy
Google and facebook are ancient technology begging to be replaced by decentralized systems. Theyre just digging their own graves
Well Steem is growing in popularity... so maybe Steem with work to replace at least Facebook in the near future.
Ivy
I think the issue is that the markets are being stomped on so that time and concensus can be reached for when there is no turning back from crypto. The banks and all the major players want to keep their positions in life. Also keeps the fud going and they can get discount coins. Dont sell. Simple.
Yes I've noticed that the news has been amazing for crypto lately and that sentiment has not shifted. Thanks for pointing this out. I think that a lot of newbies are scared and bought in too high so there is that selling pressure. Along with the selling pressure from the Mount Gox trustees and possibly games being played in conjunction with shorting on the options exchanges. Google banning crypto ads was another factor that will not effect the fundamental value of crypto although could cause more selling pressure. I think the best time to buy crypto is whenever you have money to spare that you won't need to access for at least a couple of years.
I'm not buying more until we see a consistent upward trend. I bought too many dips and now holding big crypto portfolio. That's all I can afford to lose. Nothing more than that.
it is incomprehensible what is happening in the cryptographic world, it is true that there is a lot of good news around the crypto, but there are others such as the one that I announce google to restrict information or publicity that have to do with the cryptographic world, this made it collapse the prices, as attributed by coindesk in their information, even presumes a new low that could reach US $ 5000. in the quote of the btc.
https://www.coindesk.com/6k-in-sight-bitcoin-could-drop-further-after-corrective-rally/
Yeah When we see the overall development in cryptosphere, its astonishing and over whelming especially compared to last years but due to some reasons overall market sentiment is negative...
Where as this seems bad at first sight to newcomers but it do presents sweet entry point for many old investors...
I myself bought some crypto as a long term investment...
Jealousy? Cos i dont know what would be the reason. Of course money also, but that is obvious
ich sehe nicht nur einen finanziellen vorteil sondern ich glaube an die technick dahinter
quite an interesting article. It was a good read. Thanks for sharing.
Totally agree that a lot of positive things are happening around bitcoin but the negative news tends to overshadow that.
Like just a few hours ago, there was some good news on bitcoin with lightning network(beta) going live, but there isn't much change in the price because of the current FUD.
Bitcoin coins look greed * ^ *
idk why the cryptosphere is like this, FUD when prices are going down its quite comical actually
Thank you very much very interesting information about,
Einsteinium will stay in a trading range between the November 2, 2017 low and the December 19, 2017 peak until April 20
@jrcornel
Your a crypto gangst
market goes up and down you can't adjust your portfolio based on whims of market so you have to have a strategy in a position and stay true to tht strategy and not pay attention to noise.
Hopefully the market stays strong I just began my portfolio challenge! Check it out: https://steemit.com/crypto/@pyrrhic7/can-a-newbie-dump-eur3000-into-the-bear-market-and-survive
Exactly! Great post, fortunately I think in the community we understand mainstream FUD but still realize this is actually a great time for bitcoin as far as tech and innovation are concerned. I believe that makes for a strong long term future. Good read!
Nice work here brother
I agree to your contributions
Please what's your take on dent coin?
Yea you couldn't put it any better than that man nice work and thx