Right now, Bitcoin and the entire altcoin market is taking a beating.
It's not even a guess as to what is causing the selling pressure, it is very clear.
China came out a few weeks ago and banned ICOs.
Upon first glance that seems like it would be good news. The ICO markets have been awash with fraud and shysters after the quick buck. A good cleansing of those markets would be great for the industry.
However, China wasn't done yet.
Soon there after, rumors started circulating that China would soon be shutting down all the domestic cryptocurrency exchanges over there.
As you can image that news was quite scary and the prices of most cryptocurrencies have been trending lower ever since.
Then today we got some verification on those rumors as news came out with very credible sources that says China will indeed shut down all the local exchanges by September 30th.
Wow.
Some scary news indeed!
Now that we have some of the backstory out of the way, here is why I don't think it is that big of a deal.
China currently is/was roughly 15% of the entire cryptocurrency markets in terms of volume.
Not an insignificant amount but also not the entire crypto markets either.
Also, the OTC markets for Bitcoin etc will remain open.
That means that the wealthy in China will still have the option of owning Bitcoin through the OTC markets if they so desire.
Then there is the black-market which I am sure a few will gravitate towards to get their hands on some coins.
However, the big reason why I think now is a buying opportunity is because the selling pressure is market dynamics related and not fundamentals related.
What I mean by that is that the Chinese exchanges have been told that they will be shut down by September 30th, which means they only have a few weeks to liquidate their entire holdings otherwise they risk being "stuck".
That is exactly what we are seeing today.
Investors in Chinese exchanges are trying to sell everything they can, while they can.
That is not a fundamental change with Bitcoin or the crytpocurrency space, it is a one time event.
For that reason I think that any weakness in Bitcoin, Steem, or any of the other major crytpocurrencies is a buying opportunity over the next couple weeks.
Also...
I don't think this Chinese news is permanent.
I think most likely the Chinese government will figure out ways to regulate virtual currencies much better and then once they have a better handle on things they will reopen the cryptocurrency exchanges that have the proper licensing etc.
When that happens, it will likely be another "gold rush" type of event in the cryptocurrency space again as those exchanges will again be buying everything in sight trying to build up their inventory.
Those are my thoughts at least.
Stay safe out there my friends.
Image Sources:
http://bullfightingmaza.blogspot.com/2013/02/bear-vs-bull-fight.html
http://weheartit.com/entry/25755763
Follow me: @jrcornel
The Bitshares decentralized exchange welcomes all and recognizes no government, has no borders and is not subject to the whims of any policymaker.
The DEX cannot be shut down and your money cannot be frozen or stolen.
https://bitshares.org/
If you have most of your cryptocurrency portfolio in ethereum tokens you can also use the decentralised exchanges https://etherdelta.github.io, or https://oasisdex.com for trading freely.
Also https://openledger.io built with the same code than bitshares and another one is waves Decentralized Exchange (DEX).
Ive been using this exchange for a while no need to register https://shapeshift.io/ also using the app for coin market nice to follow your altcoin portfolio on IOS
https://info.shapeshift.io/coincapio-web-and-mobile
Shapeshift is not really an exchange, since there is no order book and you cannot store anything in there. But indeed, it is a very convenient way to swap from a coin to another coin. You don't need to register, but they take a little fee ;)
+1 for not having put your ref code here (I guess you have one..)
you can refer someone to bitshares? What are the benefits?
By looking a bit further, I found this : https://bitshares.org/referral-program
Upvoted and Followed. The REAL reason Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan called Bitcoin a "Fraud" (NOT what you've heard elsewhere about wanting to drop the price) a 30-second read: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@thoughtchain/viral-why-jamie-dimon-called-bitcoin-a-fraud-not-what-you-already-heard
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Bitshares is looking better and better all the time! I keep buying more and fully support the recent initiatives re: rebuilding projects with the help of Hero support.
Also, apparently Btcc is shutting down Sept 30th!!! That means more of the market is going to be looking for a safe exchange... HELLO Bitshares!
re-steeming this for great content! as well as the info re: Bitshares -- People gotta' know what's going on!
Their international business is still operating after Sept 30th
...the plot thickens!
That's what we need.
Glorious decentralization so that things like Chinese government interventions cannot happen.
So glad that Bitshares exists.
I am also part of the SiaCoin data storage network now.
Going to set up a data storage center just to be a part of a decentralized network.
Also looking into other options so that I can contribute towards keeping networks decentralized and open to everyone and without regulation.
Good point!
Yup, once user-base and liquidity improves, decentralised exchanges like BitShares will be the go to places for traders and investors. No government can put this genie back in the box.
wasnt all bitcoin supposed to be like what ur saying ? how come ur able to keep it afloat ? recognizes no government, has no borders and is not subject to the whims of any policymaker.
how do u do it ? i want to know
This bitshares thing looks good, gonna check it out!
Upvoted and I have also bought some steem @ 1.04$ .
Hope it's now end of pullback wave.
very good post indeed - and remember - don't buy all at once - buy gradually over time to take advantage of the average price
Dollar cost averaging...BTC " "
This post received a 4% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @uxair! For more information, click here!
You were right, as seems to happen frequently. Looks like it may have bottomed. Unless I have jinxed it. I doubt I have that power.
Thanks! I hope you don't have that power either! :)
This post recieved an upvote from OPENBULL. If you would like to recieve upvotes from OPENBULL on all your posts, simply FOLLOW @openbull Please consider up-voting this comment as this project is supported only by your up-votes!
I might be wrong here but crypto is looking to be in the beginning of bear market. Meaning lower highs and lows in long term. I'd be patient, the prices could be much lower for btc and eth in 6 months. Just look at the past.
Also crypto has been going up for 2 years now, there always is an correction and always has been. And when everyone is telling you to buy, you know the there's not much profit to be made by doing so. Just basic trading 101.
I also know this isn't the popular opinion. Some here seem to expect crypto to just go up forever and ever. We are still early, but there will be corrections. It isn't the end of the world. It's rather healthy for the markets. Just hang on tight if you decide to hold and don't check the charts or you'll end up selling at the bottom when it hurts the most.
This doesn't mean the price of 1 btc will just suddenly fall to 1500 dollars. There will be bounces up but they'll always be lower highs. If my prediction is right, this is a start of the first bounce and it will not go higher than 4944 dollars, which is previous high.
Good luck you to all!
Looking in the past is the best thing. Litecoin was for a while for 50$ when Bitcoin was reaching 1k$ and then it dropped as low as 1.50$ The best way is to buy when new people will forget about Bitcoin and will move on.
Exactly.
Great informative explanation. Thank you!
No problem. I'd rather see steemians buying low and selling high than the other way. Sitting in fiat and waiting for a bottom is the best spot to be at now. Once you can clearly see floor that has formed on a weekly timeframe, then it's time to buy. Not after the price has gone up for 2 years from 200 dollars to 5000 and is now coming down fast.
What goes up most come down.
Reality at it best.
nice thought you shared here @jrcornel I always think that crypto is the best investment of all time... Just needed a strong hands to hold on this to become super rich someday... nice article
The Chinese govt is shutting down exchanges to prevent capital flight. They have tight capital controls and crypto is a threat to that. The wealthy will always buy property overseas or similar to move funds overseas. The average citizen does not have that option. I am a big believer in crypto but unfortunately I think it has further to fall before the rally.
also can you imagine,
YES YES you were right Dollars! So will China allow to shrink their savings in Dollars?
And you are right about that tight Capital controls. China just jumping ahead and sending a warning signals, to cryptos: cryptos and Bitcoin itself is watched and will be regulated if needed. But China never said anything if the ban will be permanent or temp, and what further action will be taken when it comes to Bitcoin and cryptos.
I believe if someone's lost the opportunity in crypto currency . Now its his second chance
True, try Coinflo.me - just launched! Tied to coinbase but social & much more fun!
Thanks for the analysis, it is very helpful. For how many days do you think it will last the down trend for Bitcoin?
I have a great forecast
i.e bitcoin goes to 1000$.
Lol
DM me after it's happening.
I'll give you a look on my secrets .
Although I'm new to this platform #steemit.
So no posts there but you can see that one of my concept.
It may be a prank....
https://steemit.com/earn/@ronny-handsome/got-free-usd-awesome#comments
Thank
Happy to help
Regards
@ronny-handsome
Spreading smiles.......
judging based on the slope and RSI i think its over people who wanted to back out have backed out. Its time for the bulls, I surely am one of them!
good luck :)
Basically China is asking Bitcoin "bend the knee"
We will see how the story will continue....
I is not one day / one week / one month event..... It will last longer: The winter is coming!
Now until approx. Thanksgiving is the window to buy, after that could go to $10,000 by NYEve
This information really help because i have been since the drop of bitcoin,hope this chinese wont spoil market for us.this info helps alot.
Another post maybe why this is not a start of a domino effect? Will european exchanges close? American exchanges? Maybe that's why people are panic selling...Afraid of the worst happening...I'm a HODL'er and always have been.
This swings in the BTC and cryptomarket have been there since the beginning.
FUD is just part of this game. Bitcoin survived Mount Gox, which was huge in 2013. This is just a tiny blip compared to that. Chinese will find other ways to buy and sell, and quite fast I am quite sure of that. So I agree with you, it's buying time.
Following you!
Chinese are liquidating now in a panic! Time to buy and hodl BTC
Great post! As Chinese wise man Confucius would say:
Haha ;)
Not only in China but the trading of cryptocurrencies has been banned by some other countries like Pakistan. Some of my friends and I were thinking of buying some bitcoins but recently the Supreme Court of Pakistan has also declared the trading of Bitcoin illegal and we are confused if we would be able to continue working on steemit or not :(
freedom isn't free, costs folks like you and me...
Would love to own more. I only get paid 2x a month and payday cant come in soon. Even if it comes, I've invested as much as I safely can. At this point any increments that I make is not really that significant. Sigh.
I hear ya bro!
Great post, yes a great chance to buy some cheap cryptos
It's just a market cleansing from all the people that got in for the money and some how inflated the market in a way that a bubble was created because of it.
It's not FIAT MONEY that will drive this market but the understanding and the adoption of THE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY and its phase that will change the world.
It is good to see that only the ones who understand blockchain and cryptocurrency will stick to it.
Thanks for the article. UpVoted!
Coindesk.com just put up a cool chart showing China volume has averaged about 10% over the past 6 months. A lot lower than I thought:
https://www.coindesk.com/china-shmyna-bitcoin-trading-way-distributed-now-anyway/
If you believe in the technology, definitely a buying opportunity.
That is interesting. I had the numbers somewhere between 15% and 20%. That 10% number sounds even better!
Upvoted!
I can say "I told you so!". Bear market is going to last at least a few more days. We need this "purge" to be healthier.
You can find my latests pots on the subject here:
I totally agree - we will see 500K BTC once it hits the fan
Agreed. Until Cryptocurrencies become more widely accepted, not only by large businesses but also by the majority of the world population, these crashes will always occur since the overall demand for Cryptos is not high enough to negate the pressure of a few persons selling out.
When Bitcoin and crypto currencies, in general, become more useful and integrated into everyday life, the smallest dip in price as a result of a sell out will simply be absorbed by the overall, constant demand for cryptos.
Well put sir!
+1
CHINA is 100% the best market manipulator in the world. Open your eyes and read about neo coin ico's. Pretty obvious. this is another reason to stick with decentralized exchanges like ether delta.
I'm thinking the same thing, just wish I had some money! Luckily I think I'll have a bit of time.
I agree with you on this. It is a temporary situation. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised if the Chinese backed off on this deal or opened up "official" exchanges. The Chinese have the biggest mining operation in the world and, to my knowledge, the gov't hasnt touched that. Why not? The answer is the Chinese see incredible wealth potential in crypto. Lest we forget, this gave China, a country with few natural resources, access to resources.
China doesnt want money flight...that is their biggest concern. They will eventually balance this fear with their desire to profit off this market. Bet the ranch, with the projections for bitcoin and some other currencies, they will lean towards profiting.
True, good stuff!
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nice post...followed and upvoted you
greate post sir ef you instrest histry so pless follow me
Makes a lot of sense
Another great video @jrcornel! More people need to see your stuff, resteemed!
Gave you a shout out on our first episode of Crypto Nights - brief and short video as it was our first one, but be sure to check it out!
Why people don't just CHAINGE THEIR IP THERE and the problem will be solved.
For a common man going against a govt is scary. For rebels like us its something we do each day.
I guess the government quote easily can detect traffic to well known proxies, but if there is a system that selects a random proxy every time, something like Tor, then I'd think it was a lot safer and easier. Just a thought, I may be way off.
Something big is going to happen and China will be introducing a new crypto coin before the year ends with the help of some private companies and big investors.... preparation is underway and blockchain will be great as ever. Just wait and see.
I really appreciate your analysis! I am new to the whole idea of cryptocurrencies and love reading a good, informative post like yours! Thank you for sharing with us :D
Best wishes,
Stephanie
Are you an investor yourself? If so now is the right time to buy a few coins :)
good luck!
HODL
Hi,
What is your opinion on BTCC to cease operations by 30th of September? A government imposed idea to promote FUD to accumulate cheap coins?
Bravo Cornel. Tine-o tot asa.
According to my technical analysis we could see a rebound from this levels, may be up to 3600 and then it will go down again. That is the short term. On the medium term we could be completing Elliot Wave 4 which means that only Wave 5 left before a long term bear market starts.
Here is my technical analysis
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@freedomvigilante/is-bitcoin-going-to-recover-from-this-crash-technical-analysis-with-ledger-levels-fibo-and-elliot-wave
I like that you point out that they have only told the Chinese local exchanges that they must shut down by September 30... So they have two weeks to dump their holdings, or perhaps lose them. So... this is certainly partly responsible for the downward slump (the other part being those persons who are also panic selling.) Thanks for pointing this out.
Bitshares is looking better and better constantly! I continue purchasing increasingly and completely bolster the current activities re: reconstructing ventures with the assistance of Hero bolster.
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful
Warren Buffett
just HODL
I think you should wait for few days, its still droping, thus you wont get the lowest price
I am thinking that it would drop in a few day/month too, I believe it could drop below $3000, and stay between 1500 to 2500 for quite a long time before it pumps again.
That is what I think too. For how long do think it will keep going down?
I agree with you. I know I took advantage of this sell off and whoever wants in still has a chance to get in. It looks like BTC, Litecoin, and ETH have formed a new bottom similar to others in the space.
I'm not a vampire but I only buy when there is blood on the streets
You catch a few falling knifes but more often than not you buy at the correct times with that strategy.
I am holding my cryptocurrencies and buying some high quality coins like Steem, Civic
very good post and information thank you.
very thorough and I agree with all of it! It will turn around everyone hang on and let china leave.
I invite you to upvote for my post https://steemit.com/spanish/@argd88/reciclando-ando-bellas-cestas-de-periodico
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own"
I agree definitely the time to buy. I think this is just China manipulating the market