Greetings,
I have seen article after article with warnings of this boom in activity being a massive bubble which will eventually crumble.
Bitcoin is rising to unparalleled heights (2.4k as I am typing). This is a lot of new money entering this market. Does anyone see the bull market potentially ending? If it did end, where would it fall back to? I feel like it's impossible for BTC to even fall down below 50% of it's ATH.
I don't think it's just a bubble. People are finally waking up en mass. They're seeing that the centralized banks and governments can't be trusted. They're taking their money out of the hands of Big Bankers and governments. (Cryptocurrencies are a great way to avoid taxes.)
I truly believe that this is part of the coming revolution. As long as people don't start falling back to sleep, I don't think cryptocurrencies will collapse. Any that do collapse will most likely be from problems with that specific cryptocurrency.
Thanks for your insights. I feel like something which will keep crypto high is the need for wealthy individuals in China and other socialized countries to keep the value of their currency established by taking it out of their inflating fiat ones.
I hope you're right but I still don't see anyone around me waking up and wanting to use crypto. I think this bubble is most likely some of the big industry players starting to put in their money. Along with the massive exposure and huge announcements of support by multinationals via the Consensus conference this week.
The cryptocurrency market has always been quite small. After ~three years of devaluation of coins, we are now beginning to see the utility of these technologies and thus the aborption of bigger market caps. Coins have been undervalued and the market is now correcting itself. I think we are going to see massive growth.
There are only 21 million bitcoin. Not enough for every human. That puts the value at millions of $ per bitcoin once cryptocurrencies are fully mainstream.
Incredible to imagine if that day might come. Such a thing may take decades.
Mainstream by 2025. I think we will see maximum increase in values over next 1-3 years, then the volatility to start easing off as more people adopt it. Bitcoin recently became legal tender in Japan. There are lots of big things happening in 2017.
If you look at cryptocurrencies purely as their own self-contained universe, then we're possibly in a period of "irrational euphoria."
On the other hand, people have been working for years to try to break through to a point where cryptos become a recognized asset class for investment to a much broader market.
So, let's add some perspective:
The classic "dot-com bubble" in high tech stocks took a little over four years going from Nasdaq 1000 to Nasdaq 5000 before the cooking crumbled.
Some size perspective: The total market cap of all cryptos added together is still less than it takes to make it into the world's 100 largest companies, by market value. Point? Cryptos remain a tiny flyspeck in the greater investing universe. If what we're seeing is actually the beginning of "mainstreaming," we have many, many miles to go. The market cap of the Fortune 500 companies is 17 trillion USD, or some 212 times the cap of all cryptos.
That's not so suggest we might not have a short term correction at some point, but it would probably be fairly temporary-- unlike the Nasdaq which took 15 years to hit its 2000 peak.
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I think if there's a bubble it'll happen in one (or few) cryptos the other cryptos will absorb the explosion as it is much easier to convert crypt to crypto than to crypto to fiat.
So the old advice about not putting all your eggs in one basket could not be more pertinent.
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