I agree with your assessment. It looks like several billions need to flow into this ICO in order for the price to stay stable.
However this may be a view that is slightly to simple. If people dont sell their coins much but the ICO prices stay below market price, traders may use the ICO as arbitrage opportunity and create more demand than thru an ICO where the coin is not tradeable.
While i really do trust in Dan's ability, i feel an evaluation of several billions is a bit high for an ICO. So like you i am looking forward to prices below $1. I think $0.3 would be a great price and starting at $0.5 we should start buying. Maybe small amount starting at $1.
I bought a lot on the period 0 window with the intent that this investment would be only 20% of my total investment as this is what period 0 was 20% of the market cap. I think a lot of investors did this.
EOS is use as a refuge whenever coin like Bitcoin, ETH are going down. So whenever the price of these go down it makes sense for people to invest into EOS. Most EOS are bought as a long term investment and stats seem to demonstrate this.
It makes sense, the best time to invest in ICO or mine new coin is at the very beginning, at least most of the time. There's a lot of reasons for this but one of the major one is that the crypto space has been booming in investments making most coins more expensive as time pass.
I expect the price of EOS to go up as we go. The price of ETH will go up and the total valuation of EOS will do so inevitably.
Thank you for sharing. I like your post in general (following).
I have to think about the bit that you see EOS as refuge. I wonder why is that. I see the technical aspects - that you might put ETH into the daily 2'000'000 mining process as you expect ETH to drop. But on the other hand wouldn't an efficient market compensate that meaning that at 23:59:59 there will always be the equivalent of ETH in mining process as you would pay for 2'000'000 EOS on the exchanges? I haven't checked lately but in the beginning that was quite true.
Thank you. I'm glad you enjoy reading me.
The price of EOS react a lot quicker to large buy orders than the price of BTC or ETH thus when the price of ETH goes down in relation to BTC there must but a lot of time where divesting into EOS whether it be buying directly from the daily coin release or on the exchanges is more advantageous than divesting into BTC.
That's a very simplistic explanation and I'm not even sure it hold water.
Ok now I see your point - have to think about it.
Yes you are right - there will be price differences between "mining" and exchange trades. But still that is a lot of coins coming on the market - a lot to swallow I guess. I like your analysis about prices - For 0.5$ I am definitely in!
Completely agree. I am starting to worry that my $0.5 target is a bit low. We need to come up with a buying strat
If the price of EOS were to reach USD$0.5 I would buy with everything I plan to invest, for a variety of reasons:
The price on the markets is likely to be artificially inflated like you mentioned, due to most coins bought during the ICO cycles not making it to market.
Dan has already produced two utterly incredible platforms that are continuing to grow in success. Now that he has the kind of funding behind him that is almost unimaginable outside crypto, I am expecting something phenominal.
EOS price will continue to climb forever provided the platform gets adopted more widely. Anyone wanting to use the platform needs blockchain bandwidth awarded to them by the tokens. This seems like a great long term hold.
That being said, if any of the above don't hold water I would love to have a discussion about it. ICOs are always uncertain and it helps when several minds meet to build a better understanding.
Let me know your buy times - I am also waiting @knircky - hope I have anything to invest by then still :-)
If only i would know the right ones.....
I will keep an eye on you :-)
That would be akin to having a book of all the winning Lotto numbers for the next decade. =)
In fact, if given a choice of that or the lay of the crypto markets for the next decade, I would pick the latter.