Thanks for the post. I'll digest your ideas and hope to see more from you in the future.
A few of things to consider:
Not all coins in a tier are in same type. So even if they have around the same circulation that doesn't necessarily mean the bottom priced tier 1 coin would get to the top priced coin.
Given #1 above, coins prices are more a matter of their current market cap and what you think their market cap will be in the future.
Note that its likely that a coins circulation changes over time. So you have to have a way to think about how much inflation a coin has over the time period you are looking at.
I created a post here on assessing coin prices in the future:
Hey kryptonaut,
Sorry I wasn't clear. Yeah the same industry/market. So you might have to break it out one more time to get a fair assessment. I think it will be easier once the cryptomarket matures and the dust settles where industry leaders emerge. Once we know that we can estimate new industry contenders. For example if we know the gambling leader has a market cap of X then if a better ICO shows up that we think will replace the leader we can estimate that it can get to approx X. This only can be done when assessing companies in the same sector/industry/market.
Hey,
In my comments below in my article I mentioned that this would be a great idea. Have you by chance visited a site that has coins listed by industry?
This is the best that i've seen so far. Let me know if you come across something better.
https://www.coinschedule.com/icos.php
Legend!