What is Augur?
Augur is a platform for decentralized prediction markets. It is built using Bitcoin core and operates betting and consensus mechanisms but everything else is exactly the same as Bitcoin in order to ensure safety and scalability. The intention is to use the sidechain in order to be completely interoperable with Bitcoin. One can earn reputation in the complex process of selling their outcome shares. You can also earn from creating a market for an upcoming event. These events are fact checked by reporters who earn off of their reports if correct. Augur hopes to allow the masses to get a clear understanding of what is going to happen without having biased centralized entities misleading and manipulating the masses.
Pros
Augur Has a moral backbone for their idea. More importantly, it plans to be interoperable with Bitcoin as a side chain. This will provide scalability and protection. What separates it from a gambling site is that the users create the markets and the users control the price for the outcome shares. This idea if widely adopted will also rid out biased news on predictions. They have a lot of updates that are actively updated on their blogs. They are forming strategic partners and have are active progression. The overall pro to Augur is the possibility of adoption from future markets.
Cons
Augur sounds great but it looks awful. I used their beta site today and found it utterly repulsive and awkward to both use and understand; even after doing solid research. The beta site is pretty crappy and needs a lot of work. I would hope something from 2015 would have more progress than it does. The idea that Augur has is good if it works. They have GNOSIS as competition. They have posted updates and partnerships that they are creating but none look to be exciting or currently applicable. For a number of updates that have been out, I do not see the poof in the pudd’n per say. The biggest Con for Augur is that just because they build it does not mean they will come. What I mean by this is that even if they come out with a usable site, if it is not easy to operate and understand, and does not have a clean UI then no one will adopt this.
Conclusion
While researching and studying Augur I don't like the project or the design of the project. I definitely think the cons out weigh the pros on this coin. So even if they finally figure out how to create a nice prediction market for people to use. Who is to say that an already established crypto exchange doesn't just replicate it and take the most active markets and create its own section of futures markets. I think development is very slow and does not have much to show for it. I know Rome cannot be built in a day so I am not extremely upset about it. I think the most definitive factor when deciding whether this project will have longevity and success is the excitement from the community of users. I think Augur lacks this and is the reason for its low volume on all exchanges that it is currently present on.
Sources
200M$ marketcap is a bit under evaluated..
#dreamsellers
I think you bring up some great points about Augur - I'm pretty unconvinced about their long-term viability as well.
I'm curious as to what you think about Delphi Markets (another prediction market play).
After reading their whitepaper it seems like they have a much better plan than Augur / Gnosis.
I'm definitely a little wary of the fact that they've got an anonymous team though.
I actually just wrote an article about them if you want to check it out: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@goofygrapes/thoughts-on-delphi-markets
Very insightful read though, have followed and up-voted so I can see more! 👍
alot are coming out to the wood work. I will give it a look . checkout bancor and stox as some other ones
Very good article. Really appreciate you bring this to our attention. Buy low, sell high, it seems so simple but most investors still don't seem to get it :-) An interesting website I found: https://www.coincheckup.com I really missed a platform that analyses every single coin in depth but this site gave me all the answers.