12/07/2019/10:00CET
The rally in #bitcoin has hit a wall. Is this the end of the bull and back to the bear? Lets take a look
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- Trading at 11687usd at press time.
- This is a sharp recovery in the last hours from a market rout that took us from the low 13k to the high 10k levels in the last 48h.
- round trip was 16.9% top to bottom and now we are back 6.8% from that bottom
- Day traders that are on the ball with these movements are loving life right now. Volatility a plenty in the most liquid crypto in the world.
- Looks to me like the second retest of the 21dema since the most recent highs. I like it every time an indicator is confirmed. It adds weight to the TA analysis using it.
- You could sort of call what we have had now as a double top. This can be a bearish signal
- We are looking for price to find solid support now which may have happened in the form of the 21dema
- Better yet is a static support line that constitutes part of the static market structure.
- For this I look at the 10500 level, but that is a weaker one that just below it at 9750 levels which is quite strong being the bottom of the intervening low between the double tops.
- Under the 9750 level, 8850 is also a strong support level.
BTCUSD Hourly on Bitstamp
- Here you can see how the last 3-4 hour have been the turn around from this most recent rout.
- The round trip from our current price , up, and then down, and then back is only 95 hours or just short of 4 days.
- Since the break from the most recent high on the 10/7, we have traded below the 21hema. This is often considered the momentum indicator for day traders. it is only in the last hour we decisively broke that indicator.
- This hints at a resumption of trading above this indicator, thus bullish movement.
- In the bull case, am looking at a pause at the 11840 area, and then moving to retest highs at 13300-13900.
Marcro news
- China is reacting to Libra in a defensive manner, we can expect they will not be held back by their own regulatory machinery as the US will be with Libra, and hope to steal the thunder from Facebook. link
- An interesting story again about Libra but this time from Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England acknowledges that despite the dangers Libra poses to the status quo financial architecture, it does aim to address some serious shortcomings of said architecture. It is an insightful analysis from the swamp. link
- Expect news from Google, Amazon, Apple etc of their own versions in some for or another soon.
- Corporate, extra-sovereign currencies are on the way, whether central banks and governments like it or not.
- Expect a lot of jockeying for position to be a viable solution when our next financial meltdown gets underway.
- In Zimbabwe, the banning of foreign currencies has herded the population into Bitcoin link
- link
- Trump is able to push markets around with his Twitter account like a fat baby with toy blocks, but his latest tweet rant ran into a wall when he poopooed both bitcoin and Libra in his latest Twitter fit. link
- More an observation than fact: as cryptos look to have turned the tied and turned bullish once again, the trash talk from the MSM and all the financial big wigs has been more tempered this time around. Have they come to the realisation that poopooing (what an appropriate word today :-) cryptos has a strong potential for reputational blowback this time around. Hello Agustín Carstens, are you out there.
- The true disruptive impact of #bitcoin and the other major alts is now undeniably sinking in on those in power link
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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True....the powers to be finally recognize crypto...especially bitcoin...to be a real threat to their attempts to have centralized control of their monetary systems....such a threat will cause over reaction....