28/08/2019/17:00CET
Our wedge is getting tighter and tighter. In which direction will we break?
BTCUSD 4H on Bitstamp
- We are trading at 10217USD at press time, after a quite 24h
- I have tweaked our technical wedge pattern, but it made little difference to the overall analysis.
- We are still in a undirectional wedge with lower highs and higher lows. These are classically hard to call.
- In its current configuration it this wedge ends on the 31st Aug and is at the 10138USD level. Pretty much where we were earlier today. i.e. well within the daily trading range of #BTC
- One can off course start to get all sexy with auxiliary indicators but the exercise quickly becomes a goal seeking expedition.
- Our 21EMA and 50SMA on the daily are coinciding and in a falling pattern, while the 100SMA on the daily is rising up underneath us. These indicators are basically acting as boundaries of our price action at the moment. Take a look here...
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- A larger wedge also exists which ends on the 16th Sept and at a price of around 10740USD. Could this be the wedge we should be looking at?
- Ever since April I have been waiting for a good safe chance to reenter the market and I have chose this to be it. I have been adding long positions over the last few weeks.
- Now it is patience time. I have laid some stops below me to catch a breakdown, but I feel the weight of probability is leaning lightly to the upside this time.
- Going from past experiences with trading BTC, I think the move will be sharp and surprising.
- It will suck in the sideline #FOMO crowd and at the same time wipe out shorts forcing them to close out and push the price further.
MACRO VIEW
- Mark Carney of the Bank Of England has come out and stated that central banks' orbit around the USD has outlived its purpose and is now a net negative for the world economy. He seems inspired by the concept of Facebook's Libra design enough to use as a point of reference of what he (they) think would be a good replacement for the USD as a reserve currency.
I beg you to not be fooled by this apparent endorsement of the technology behind our beloved cryptos. What Mark Carney and his ilk are planning has very little in common with Bitcoin for example.
Their dream is to control all money flows - absolutely. The architecture behind bitcoin suddenly allows this in a most elegant of ways.
But we should also see the silver lining: By adopting the basic technology of cryptos as their solution to a pure digital Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC, another arcane acronym is birthed into the economic lexicon), they simultaneously endorse the #Cryptocurrency idea. Considering they will never really be able to destroy #Bitcoin (as long as people want to have it), the creation of this #SHC will likely remove some adoption hurdles for Bitcoin adoption. - Looks like Zucks crypto wet dream is drying out. Some of the founding members of the #Libra association are getting cold feet from the heat they are getting from regulators. What's the bet #Visa and #Mastercard are among them? Nobody knows yet who they are yet, so I am only guessing.
- The Swiss entity #Sygnum, has just been awarded a Swiss Banking licence. link In my opinion this is not really much of news on its own since banking regulation is designed mainly to work with a fractional reserve currency, but the development is noteworthy as it is another tangible sign that #Switzerland is forging ahead with growing confidence into the #crypto world. This conversely also implies that the Swiss acknowledge that the Global Banking Industry, within which Switzerland has enjoyed an overweighted importance, is now waning.
- Craig Wright seems to be in hot water with a law suit against him from the family of his deceased business partner link. I am only tangentially following this story since being a fellow Aussie, I am somewhat embarrassed by one of my compatriots acting generally like a huge dick. What puzzles me at the moment is that the law suit seems to assume that Craig Wright is Satoshi since the suit is claiming half of the 1.1 mill bitcoins that #Satoshi is claimed to have mined in the initial years of Bitcoin.
I am not convinced that Craig Wright is Satoshi, so I do not think he has these coins, but I believe he has some coins about.
What will come of this claim of 550,000 bitcoins or about 5 billion USD which the judge has awarded the partners estate.
Will be interesting to see.
I have heard claims that this suit will mean Craig Wright has to liquidate these bitcoins to settle the suit. Necessarily those making these claims, must also believe Craig Wright is not only Satoshi, but he also hold the keys to Satoshi's wallets.
Yes a dump of this magnitude onto the markets today (or any other day) would be a catastrophe, but I am not believing this to be the case. Just my 2 bobs worth. - The MSM is openly talking about recessions! Wow. When this happens, then its right around the corner. There has been murmurs a plenty that the insiders have been exiting the markets for some months now, but this is now the open warning by the MSM who want to avoid being on the wrong side of history when the markets implode. Brace for impact.
- To confirm the above, Gold, and Silver are on a tear of the past. This is the simplest hedge for economic and inflationary fears. The spooks are getting real now (the daily gold chart)
- Back to the MSM, another peice of the puzzle is falling into place, the central banking world and the MSM work hand in glove most of the time. Their leaders are often working openly together as in cross board directorships, or covertly in social circles. Trump is being lined up as the patsy for this next crash his absurd trade war is backfiring for the US. Not only is it galvanising its advesaries to collaborate, but it is going to shortly kick off the long awaited inflationary wave all this money printing has engineered. The USD may be on a strong high just right now, but when you look at gold, you see it is also falling but simply not as fast as everyone else. When the crash is in, Trumps name will be all over the rubble in glowing lights.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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