22/06/2019/12:00CET
Bitcoin has been a rocket ship, all the way to the moon... or is it?
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- #BTC is trading at USD10896 at press time. It has peaked out 10952 earlier today and is having a cooling off of sorts that is visible in the hourly.
The hourly does show that this most recent surge is very concentrated in time. (see the hourly further down) - We are stretching quite a ways away from our 21DEMA which is a contrarian signal to hold your FOMO in check.
- If you look back at my previous analyses, you will see I have mentioned many times that I expect a 10k touch and we have had it very decisively. But you may say as well that we have blasted right past the 10k seeing as we are almost at 11k now.
- TA is not an exacting science and it is just about predicting probabilities. And probabilities still favor a cooling off of this rally.
- I have seen TA and emulated it myself that shows fib retracements showing this rally topping off at a bit over 10500, so our current level does not invalidate our TA analysis,... yet.
- Just to recap, the broader consensus in TA circles, and is proven out by repeated historic events in BTC's history is that a 30-40% retracement is likely following a parabolic price run up.
- If this is to happen, we will see BTC back at the 6-7k handle before going higher.
- I am ready to say it now: THE BULL MARKET IS BACK ON IN BITCOIN! I am holding out on making too many comments on the alt coin market. The market dominance of #Bitcoin is shooting up and leaving the rest of the crypto market behind.
- BTC having broken the 10k mark has not yet filtered down into the mainstream news yet. The weekend reset of the MSM news cycle will certainly pick this up next week. This could definitely add to a fresh FOMO bump.
- Could this be the next wave of new FOMO victims sticking their toes into crypto. The start of the FOMO cycle again?
BTCUSD Hourly on Bitstamp
- Here we can see the short spike in prices. I have heard on my feed that a lot of shorts are getting stopped out createing a short squeeze. Could this be the catalyst behind this short spike?
- If so, could it in turn become the catalyst for the start of the retracement? hmmm. food for thought
- The hourly does look way overbought to me.
Overall market cap
- We can see the rapid nature of the sentiment reversal from the beginning of spring this year.
- In that time frame we have seen the overall market cap go from 133bl to 326bl! That is 145% gain!
- And volumes are on the ascent as well. This is what the turn of a market from bear to bull looks like.
Dominance chart of cryptos
- As mentioned before, the dominance of bitcoin is undeniable. It is definitely surging over alts.
Some theories as to what is at play:
- BTC is the gateway cryptocurrency, or another way to put it, it is the reserve crypto currency. This means that either if a person wants to have investment exposure to crypto (BTC and alts), or just BTC, the path is the same, BTC first.
- As weaker alts are struggling, traders holding them are liquidating back into BTC
- As geo-political and geo-economic tensions rise, and as global finance and the USD$ role in it is further weaponized by an increasingly desperate appearing hegemon in the US, more and more global citizens are turning to crypto as a solution to move wealth or preserve it.
Facebooks Libra
I want to do a special piece on this so please stay tuned for my thoughts on:
- What Libra is hoping to be
- Who is Libra going to disrupt/affect
- How will BTC and alts be affected more specifically
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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What a week!
Nice recap on a crazy week we had. Let's see what will next week bring... Feels like a year each week in crypto. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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