To be honest... Not really
But I have some strong reasons to believe that it just might be and it's not so focused on technical analysis as many are saying it must be. I'm of the unpopular opinion that TA has a very limited ability to predict markets, and as much as it can somehow seem to explain what happened, it's not so hard to describe events after the fact, hindsight is always 20/20.
I say its an unpopular opinion because there are those out there who believe that TA is the one force that moves the markets and that ignoring it just means you are a terrible trader. There might some truth to the power of TA when it comes to day trading, but to those of us who feel a little more comfortable investing long term, TA just seems like reading tea leafs, no offense to anyone who still practices tasseography.
Do I have some inside Market Knowledge?
Of course I don't, nobody does, unless you are in a closed circle of billionaires the chances of anyone scoring some inside information is close to zero, and please note the "B". Millions don't move the markets significantly, Billions do. In this sense I doubt there is anyone big enough on this platform to shift the seas of the whole cryptosphere. Within Steem, yes of course we got some mega whales, but I'm talking about the whole ecosystem really.
Yesterday I did notice some interesting moves in the market, some spaced out purchases that seemed to have been spread out as to not push up the price of three major cryptocurrencies. I suspect these were some big players loading up in preparation for the ride up. Of course, this is all speculation, but when some orders hit the books like they were timed with a chronometer, I can't help but to wonder what is going on behind the curtains.
April is the Spring of the Markets
I won't bore anyone with charts as I'm no analyst and I would probably do a poor job at presenting them, but what I have been able to learn from looking at the past years of cryptocurrencies is that the month of April seems to always announce the move up. Why? Again I'm not super sure, but I suspect it has to do with taxes.
After all lets not forget taxes in our crazy nation are due in April and many people would feel more comfortable investing after this has been taken care of, refunds have been processed or payments to the government have been effected. We might disagree on the concept of taxes, their importance or even legality, but to those who want to operate without having the government take their "freedom" its something they have to deal with, sorry.
So what could happen next?
I will preface this with saying that no one should listen to me as if I'm some sort of financial guru, I'm far from it. My intention is to share simply what I intend to do and if this information is valuable to someone, then so be it.
In my view this weekend is crucial, we seem to have our ugliest red markets on the weekends and a green market would probably signal the big money that "its safe" for whatever that means on this crazy world of cryptocurrencies. If on Monday we are sitting over 9k or more I fully expect us to visit 11k Bitcoin before the middle of the month.
What could this mean for Steem? Well, Steem just like any other altcoin follows Bitcoin and it would help us most definitely. I would not be too surprised if we are sitting at 3 USD Steem as soon as next week and 4 USD by the end of the month.
Time to load up?
Maybe, I will try to do some myself but all within reason. We might not be at these "low" prices for long and I want to make sure I don't regret a thing later. So if you have some fiat laying around, this is something for you to consider, if you don't then it's safe to ignore.
What I do know is that right now it does not seem to be the time to sell. I'm holding on to my tokens for as long as I can, and I will try to make some moves outside of the cryptosphere that would allow me to postpone selling even one satoshi. Again this is something for each one of us to ponder and not a decision anyone can make for you.
The weak hands
As they say, might have been shaken off completely.... Maybe, I guess this weekend will reveal if my suspicions are correct and on Monday I will either be happy with this post or disappointed. On that note... What are your thoughts on this? Are you buying? Are you selling? Let's have a chat...
Nice article @meno. Good to see some upside in the markets as well as in this post: thanks for that. I hope you're right and the bear trend is over. I'm not buying nor selling for now, I did buy some LTC at 112 USD some days back. Followed, up-voted and resteemed!
LTC is looking pretty nice right now, even today... I think at 112 you got in pretty good
Nice article, I think you could be right, is that you hiding behind the tree bruised and battered by the market.
I like your beard! will you shave with a positive turn around. Unleash your realself with the energy of the bounce forward? I will
Yes, that is the plan my friend!!! embrace for take off!
Excelente post gracias por compartir, todo es paciencia y esperar el mejor momento.. y este esta cerca. @meno62
Im new in this world, but I am fascinated, trying to learn as much as I can and with my very tiny investments, I do stay on the positive side and surely hope I will see an upswing soon, to encourage me and give me hope really. So, your post gives me hope of an inspiring spring :-)
Until my portfolio doubles in a week, I won't be impressed. Slow gains are worthless and only prove that the party is over. If crypto is revolutionary then it needs to offer a lot more than behaving like the stock market...nobody is going to take huge risks to make normal gains.
Can't disagree with that...
Well even if youre wrong. Positive news make me happy. Haha. Not that CCN crap. 😔
It's finally fun again to check my portfolio! Glad I bagged some extra XVG last week. Looking forward to Verge's announcement on April 16th.
Fingers crossed lol
Joy