My own guess is that a maximum of around 10 will survive and the rest will eventually dissappear except for maybe very specific use case crypto. Just guessing, but unless a crypto can get integrated into PoS or wide acceptability by retails then when the economy crashes people will run for safety and many cryptos go to zero. My guess anyways.
Following you now.
I think you are almost right. There are way to many coins without purpose. And without debit cards to actually use the funds, adaption will be minimal.