So BTC has been on an absolute tear this year and most analysts don't know what to make of it. Is the bottom of the bear market in? Has the bull market begun? They're both question on the tip of the tongue of many in crypto.
The uncharted dip
I remember the moment in 2017 when I really felt like we were in a bull market. Not only had bitcoin topped the all-time high ($1000) of the previous (2013) bull market, it had obliterated it. So much so that I was 're-buying the dip' of $3000 without much thought of the fact that it was 3x the previous ATH.
I also remember people offloading their bitcoin at $2000 in 2017, in anticipation of the 'inevitable' pull back, that never came.
For me, Bitcoin blowing past $20k will signal the beginning of the next bull market. And only when buying back at $20k looks fanciful and people are regretting selling at $30k, will I be sure that the bull market is in full swing.
Paradigm shift
Should it come the next bull market should redefine bitcoin. The notion of new retail buyers splashing out on a whole bitcoin will be fanciful. Purchasing fractions of a bitcoin for safekeeping will be the order of the day.
At some point during or after the next bull market, it will start making sense to think of price in terms of mBTC (0.001 bitcoin) rather than BTC. Paying $100 for 2.5 mBTC will be more palatable than $100 for 0.0025 BTC. Hoarding 1000 mBTC or 1 BTC will become an end goal rather than a starting thought.
And when the sentiment in the mainstream around bitcoin takes on yet another unprecedented bullish twist (1 million dollar bitcoin talk), I'll know we're topping out.
Echo chamber
For me, this current price rise is happening within very much within the echo chamber of the cryptocurrency community. If bitcoin 'crashed' to $3k not many outside crypto will know it reached $11k nor the significance of it having done so.
The sentiment is nowhere near as bullish as 2017. Back then I had a hoard of casual investors clamoring to get into all kinds of cryptos. That hasn't happened yet, they still haven't returned. Even within the crypto community, it is 50-50 on whether this 'rally' signals the end of the bear market. It only seems like 'FOMO' because the shilling within the crypto echo chamber (that went missing in 2018) has started to return.
Conclusion
In my opinion, the next bull market has not begun however Bitcoin is showing signs of recovering from the worse of the 2018 bear market. It reminds me of when bitcoin recovered from the $200 lows of the MT Gox crash to around $500.
Does this mean that there is nothing but blue skies ahead for crypto?
Far from it.
We've seen that price momentum can flip at the drop if a hat. The near future could just as easily see $3k per bitcoin or $30k per bitcoin and both will seem 'so obvious' with hindsight. That's why having a plan for both and a temperament to treat 'both imposters the same' will stand you in good stead in the long run.
Image by Collin Weaver from Pixabay
Hi Nano,
I agree with your statement, I don’t know enough about Bitcoin to speak authoritatively, but looking at the generally bearish state of the altcoin market I would agree the bear appears to be loosening his grip, but I don’t see a bull running through this Crypto china shop breaking records yet, so I am cautiously adding to my existing holdings with money I can afford to loose and positions I am willing to hold through the next possible downturn. I am hoping for up, but prepared for down. 🙏
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Upvoted!
The most bullish sign is when Doug Polk starts making videos again 😂🤣😂🤣👍🏻
BITCOIN TO $20,000.00 IN A FEW MONTHS
LOL Doug is such a noob. I'm really glad he got REKT on his stupid LUX coin or w/e.
In my opinion I think that people shouldn't conclude it's bullish yet because I think it's a recovery process and before we can say it's completely bullish in my opinion I think Bitcoin would have to have crossed 18k and maybe settle on 18k for let's say 2 or three weeks without getting down in my opinion.
At the end of the day, these are only assumptions because 2017 was even More notorious and it turned out Many people weren't so spot on, on their decisions and the Fomo definitely killed it. I do hope this signs can turn out significantly will. Welldone Nanzo I enjoyed reading.
interesting thoughts on that mBTC, hope the bull comes and can last longer.
We shall see, but having it triple in 6 months is pretty interesting to say the least. Hope you're doing well nanzo!
That´s no longer a doubt, it's a reality. If there is anyone still bearish they have to start looking for a different type of investment, because reading the market is not for them...
Not only are we going to "the moon again", but the FOMO has already started to kick in. The only question is, how big will be the correction after this $5K dollar push in a few weeks.
Bitcoin is recovering from 2018 but this time there are many factors affecting for it to rise into unprecedented levels like some crazy predictions of 100k at the end of the year @nanzo-scoop
Yes, that would signify progress beyond last time and I think it may happen.
Give it a few more days and it's gonna be heading up again I think. Hope you got some besides all that STEEM?
When Bitcoin do hit $20k again, we are going to see some crazy ass fomo! 😅
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It's time to invest from the furture!
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Of course I sold my BTC one day before the recent pump 😂 Saw some gains from LTC but had them abruptly ripped away over the past two days.
Really hoping that BTC can relinquish some of that dominance back to the altcoins here soon.
Yep, I've made that mistake in the past!
I've got a piece lined up talking about altcoins and whether they will recover.
I don't actually think bitcoin is also ready for bullrun or started now. Like you said, I believe it just start to recover from the bad market
Heck yeah, this is why I always preach to people (whether on a post or on my MSPWaves show) that you must understand your downside and upside when entering a position and be sure you are comfortable with them.
Absolutely!
Has the bitcoin bull market really begun?
Absolutely, can't you just feel it in your bones? Of course, the price momentum can flip at the drop of a hat; but we're running feel the wind through your hair and enjoy!
Lol... I've felt so many things 'in my bones' over the last few years, that I could have arthritis. Most of the times the market does what it's going to do regardless!!
As conservative as the above statements may seem, it is the bitter truth - one which only an unbiased mind will accept. Let's see how things play out. Cheers!
both the scenarios are possible but the Fomo that have began again is just unbelievable great to see you back :)
i am impressed . your crypto currency post is #amazing .thanks for your #excellent preview . keep on . have a great weekend
Congratulations @nanzo-scoop!
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