Thank you very much Mr. Goodmindset! Oh you're right - I was not very clear about this :D The probabilities of the scenarios are meant to be considered for themselves. But after all: how do you want to measure them? Percentages actually don't make much sense. It's just another way to say that I consider the last scenario to be the most likely ;)
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Yeah that's true and you can't measure them! I mean I knew what you wanted to say with the percentages so everything is fine. :)