BTC : " Where should I go? What should I do?"
BCH : " Frankly my dear, I don't give a damm "
This big block/small block saga like the story above, started well. So what happened? And as the question begs. Where should BTC go? What can BTC do?
Sadly, for BTC there are no good outcomes. The Chain Death Spiral has set in and it can only have one ending. The BTC chain will come to a grinding halt, because the little hashing that is left, will not be enough to take it past the next difficulty adjustment, if it makes it past the one coming up.
At the very core,(pun intended) the real difference between BCH and BTC is that people embracing BCH believe in the protocol while people embracing BTC believe in the development team. Because the protocol was held hostage by the development team, this current state of affair arose. Never again should we allow, or even make it possible for any faction, not even miners, hold the protocol hostage.
We are now watching the end game play out. The value of BTC is crumbling. The parties holding the price up will soon give up completely. It is futile, When the chain in question is impossible to use, it does not have a value. Already 38.95% of the hashrate have migrated to BCH and they are never going back, despite wishful assurance that they will, arguably to chase better profits. In reality, for a large majority of miners, the bitter experience of the past have been too painful. In addition it also does not make any sense to be mining on both chains.
A miner now earns 83% less, mining on the BTC chain. In addition he wont be able to cash out for at least 2 days and by then the prices could have fallen further. No commercial miner can absorb these losses for long, no matter how strongly he supports the losing chain. His losses are uncapped, unknown and uncontrollable. Contrast this situation to that of the initial early BCH miner. He could allocate and budget for a cash burn until the project succeeds. His losses are capped, known and controllable.
BTC price may never recover. It will slide downwards with decreasing usability, The BTC chain may never be profitable to mine on again. On the other hand the price of BCH will trend upwards with increasing hashrate migration.
The End
Soon, BCH block height will surpass BCT to become the longest chain. By then it may even have the higher amount of hashing power. The BTC chain will just grind to a halt. It may not even see the next difficulty adjustment. The core team can move their agenda to Litecoin. The natural order and balance of the crypto universe will be restored.
Yay Patrick, you made it over to Steemit! I've been following your blog and have been commenting that you should come here. Could it be that I am the one that encouraged such an important voice to join the Steemit platform???
You've got a follower here with a full upvote and I resteemed your post. Welcome aboard and awayyyyy weeeee gooooooo!!!!! 54 blocks before BCH is longer!
I think So. Thanks
Also just sent you a tip to welcome you aboard. Your blog has been an amazing help. You won't be censored here.
Thanks. Maybe I may move blog here
I am very happy to listen to every sentence from your post. I get the latest knowledge and experience, thank you for sharing with us, I hope we will continue to be able to communicate and share information through this community, hopefully your day is fun.
Best wishes for you from me,
I have the latest information you might see ..!
Https://steemit.com/indonesia/@ponpase/ayo-intip-keseruan-anak-aceh-di-kancah-nasional-rover-challenge-indonesia
Bali is strong for Bitcoin
Upvoted and Followed!!
Awesome to see you here! And loving the frequent posts of late : )
I think people holding BTC will lose. And they can't get information because of censorship. That is why I posted. Surprised that there are quite a few people that actually read what I write!! Hope it helps them. Even if they dont agree at least pause for thought.
So you think that even though the difficulty adjustment makes it 2.25x more profitable to go back to BTC chain, that most miners who switched will stay put? It does seem that the mining community has been sorely undervalued by the SegWit faction and may be upset about it. BCH gives them a viable alternative. However, it does appear that the BCH hashrate has started a slight downturn. Do you still think more migration is likely to BCH?
I would love to hear if you have any thoughts about how BTC could be saved. I've become so fixated on your argument that I'm worried about tunnel vision around this issue because you make such a convincing argument.
Also, what triggers the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment for BCH and could it do that again?
Lots of questions around this issue! Appreciate your comments. Thanks.
BTC march to oblivion is inevitable unless core codes in an EDA as well, and soon. BCH has 2PH of stable hashrate since 21 December 2017, up from 1PH. If this continues a tipping point will be reached and it can be triggered by several events.
BTC has a huge mempool backlog. The irony is that if that mempool disappears, fees also disappears with it. This will change the profitability dynamics and since transaction volume is going towards BCH as users are being driven away from BTC from high fees, BTC does not have a good future. EDA and bigger blocks will come too late to save it.
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