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You are right - at the moment it seems the success rate for such scenarios is priced in as "likely" (around 10% if you simple compare market caps). That is for the early stage of the project a "high" evaluation in my point of view. On the other hand - Dan has proven that he is successful several times and Block.one seems to be backed by "big names". So I have to rethink what success %tage I see for EOS myself.

don't forget Tezos raised over $200 000 000

Yes - and there was a big article in local "standard" newspapers (Switzerland) that those who raised that amount of money don't have the intention to deliver to their promises - in other words "scam". I don't know if that is true but it surprised me to find that in a local newspaper.
And that is my point - the evaluation e.g. 200'000'000 USD for just publishing promises and without tangible results seem for me over the top.