ETH looks very heavy and the bounce that it managed to pull off from 34 weeks WMA (white) is very weak and if the WMA doesn't hold and the market closes below $220 on 4H basis the fall may continue all the way down to $50. There obviously will be intermediary stops and bounces on the way. One of which is obvious - 89 weeks WMA currently @ $109.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/7622703/ethusd-h4-simplefx-ltd
Addon: Finally, we have a strong reaction @ $200 round number that should change the technical picture.
Finally we have a strong reaction @ $200 round number that should change the technical picture.
going up?
Do you give any credibility to the rumors about PBOC looking to ban all crypto exchanges although it was never officially stated? i know this analysis here is from TA perspective but wondered it these outside factors could also be having an effect since it has been all over the news lately. Thanks for your insight.
I know as much you do but modus operandi of all markets is always "buy the rumour, sell the fact". In this particular case it is vice versa.
A reaction that your TA didn't see coming. You were saying we are going down to 50...
Keyword: IF
$115 is probably more like it. This is all contrived by the big boys...they can usually steal the money and manipulate the market. Which they are doong to a certain extent but im emboldened by the fact that the big boys want their piece and the only way they can buy in with a big enough stake is to lower the price. So if we all cam live without fear we cam also buy in ay reduced costs
I don't use arbitrary numbers. All my targets have been derived from volatility.
Thanks. Can you provide any more info or lonks or diagrams....Im more so a feel investor But I recognize my need to trust raw data. Any advice you have on being abke to predict or forsee the market is appreciated.
A strong bounce off 89 weeks WMA (currently @ $109) is highly likely. But from the implied volatility point of view, it doesn't look like it's the final destination.
@srezz just to be clear you're saying that if certain conditions are met the price could fall to $50?
I've done it in English but let me try it in Chinese:
ETH看起來非常沉重，從34週WMA（白色）下跌的反彈非常弱，如果WMA不持有，而市場在4H基礎上收盤低於220美元，跌幅可能會持續至$ 50
Haha love that! You made me smile on this red day :)
LOL I didn't want to make the wrong assumption as I know very little about TA and the price of $50 seemed amazing low so the comment was more out of shock!
Comedy = up votes :)
Well... it did close below 220USD. The thin red line is probably 25USD/day. Would that be sort of the expected rate (approx, average)? Or is it used only to estimate the crossing of the WMA and that 220 limit? Just trying to learn.
Wrong assumptions lead to wrong conclusions. What is the basis for your "thin red line"?
Of course they do! And... none: in the graphic there is a red line, going downwards with time, that is thinner than the horizontal red line. It seems to be extrapolated (to call somehow) from the blue WMA.
The red line that you are talking about is trend resistance line. When the price closes above it together with closing above the red thin horizontal trigger line - that's the "buy" signal.
@srezz: you're talking about closing price but at which moment?
I post 4 hours and daily charts. So, 4H and daily closes based on GMT.
It is now almost hit your WMA34 target. Should we expect price goes lower than 100?
Nope. It's heading back up to the $240 level. Support at $200 was too strong.
well, we've bounced quite strongly off the 34WMA and have cleared the $240 level. i've got $257 on bitfinex and $260 on Gdax. Are we strong enough to steady the course up at this level?
BTW, Srezz - thanks again man. You nailed this dip. You need to list your addresses for LTC and ETH. I owe you, bro!
Truth is we don't know. Support was great at 200 and bounce was equally great. But you never know that creates an equally large profit taking opportunity. Think about it whales won't hold all of sudden they take large profits. 60 dollar increase a coin is hell of a profit when you bought 500+ eth. So we will find out. I expect one more profit taking dump and then steady rise.